The primary condition for significant growth in digital gold and altcoins will be their independent movement from traditional financial markets, according to analysts at Santiment.
📊 For years, Bitcoin has often moved in the same direction as the stock market, particularly the S&P 500. When stocks climbed during periods of low interest rates and strong economic growth (2021 & 2024, for example), Bitcoin and many altcoins flourished. When stocks fell during… pic.twitter.com/IQMc47b9Zm
— Santiment (@santimentfeed) February 24, 2026
Bitcoin typically follows the S&P 500 index. Digital assets appreciate during periods of low interest rates and depreciate when the Federal Reserve raises them.
However, in the past six months, this pattern has broken. Since late August, gold has risen by 51%, the S&P 500 has gained 7%, while Bitcoin has plummeted by 43%. Researchers have recorded the weakest correlation between these assets since the crisis of November 2022.
While the leading cryptocurrency declines, traditional markets remain stable. Nonetheless, experts consider this decoupling a temporary phenomenon caused by capital flows. It is expected that Bitcoin will soon return to its usual pattern and resume moving in tandem with stocks.
In the second half of 2025, analysts anticipate three reductions in the Federal Reserve’s key rate. Easing monetary policy will create conditions for a rapid upward move of the asset. Digital gold will have room to grow and close the gap with stock indices.
MVRV Metric Dynamics
Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish noted the normalization of the MVRV ratio. The decline in this indicator has brought the cryptocurrency’s valuation back to levels with historically favorable risk-reward ratios. However, Bitcoin has not yet reached the zone of deep undervaluation.
$BTC MVRV has compressed back toward its long-term mean, with prior +1σ extremes now fully reset.
Valuations are approaching levels that have historically marked better risk-reward, though not yet in deep undervalued territory.https://t.co/UMCgOJKwZQ pic.twitter.com/5JHnEeLGeh
— Chris Beamish (@ChrisBeamish_) February 24, 2026
The realized capitalization of the coin has fallen from its November peak of $1.12 trillion to $1.09 trillion. Over the month, the indicator decreased by 2.26%, reflecting a continued outflow of capital.
According to researcher Axel Adler Jr., the largest share of Bitcoin’s supply (25.9%) consists of coins that have remained unmoved for three to six months. Most of these positions were opened near price peaks and are currently at a loss.
The analyst described the current market phase as “neutral-defensive.” Investors are avoiding mass capitulation, but there is no influx of new funds to drive the price up.
Earlier, on February 24, analysts at Matrixport highlighted a key obstacle to Bitcoin’s recovery.