Bitcoin’s Path Out of Consolidation Hinges on US Election Outcome, Says Expert

Regardless of the outcome of the US presidential election, by the second quarter of 2025, Bitcoin will return to a trajectory above the macro trend. This forecast was made by Keith Alan, co-founder of Material Indicators.

Facts:
☑️ R/S Flip at $69k has been invalidated
☑️ Trend Precognition ⬇️ #TradingSignals on the $BTC W chart are gaining strength
☑️ Technical Support at the 21-Day MA has been lost
☑️ @Polymarket Narrative Traders are getting rekt
☑️ Technical Support at the 50-Day MA is coming… pic.twitter.com/Fs0VSqgQ9h

— Keith Alan (@KAProductions) November 4, 2024

“We will not get relief from this ‘storm’ caused by politics, anxiety, stress, chaos, or market volatility until Inauguration Day, January 20,” the expert explained.

According to Alan, a Trump victory would trigger a “reflexive” positive reaction, while a Democratic win would have the opposite effect.

“Bitcoin will not reach a new ATH until the votes are counted,” he suggested.

The expert noted that various support lines, including the mid-cycle peak of April 2021 and the 21 DMA, failed to act as support.

On Election Night

Bitfinex noted the “calm before the storm” in anticipation of the US elections — after reaching a three-month high, Bitcoin’s implied volatility began to decline.

Data from CoinGlass showed a reduction in open interest in derivatives: traders reduced both longs and shorts.

“Despite the general expectation of increased price fluctuations ahead of the US elections on November 5, many market participants are hesitant to take any action, adopting a wait-and-see approach,” the review stated.

Experts predicted a powerful surge in volatility immediately after the event. Its absence could signal a “much deeper correction.”

According to QCP Capital’s calculations, on the night the presidential race concludes, the movement of the first cryptocurrency’s rate could be 3.5% in either direction.

QCP US Election Commentary — 5 Nov 24

1/ The day has finally arrived. Market tension is rising across stocks, treasuries and crypto, ahead of what’s shaping up to be one of the tightest U.S. presidential races in history.

— QCP (@QCPgroup) November 5, 2024

“Traders may be underestimating the election-related risk: the lack of a volatility premium after the November 8 expiry suggests that markets expect a quick resolution, possibly not anticipating potential delays or contested results,” analysts warned.

Specialists noted active purchases of both “upper” calls and “lower” puts. In their view, the dynamics of digital gold still reflect the “Trump trade.”

What About Altcoins?

Bitfinex described the current situation in the altcoin sector as “apathy.”

“The speculative interest that once supported this category has vanished. This is reflected in stable funding rates and a ‘muted’ overall sentiment. With Bitcoin absorbing most of the capital inflow into the market, altcoins are struggling. Without a new catalyst, their prospects for a comeback appear slim,” specialists indicated.

Earlier, analyst Willy Woo stated that altcoin seasons will continue, but the intensity of returns will decrease as the cryptocurrency market matures.

As reported by Hashkey Capital, for a new cycle in assets to begin, it is not enough for digital gold to simply exceed its all-time high. They estimate that Bitcoin needs to “pull up” to $80,000.