The leading cryptocurrency is “heating up” and is already on the brink of a “rally zone,” according to CryptoQuant’s Axel Adler Jr.
Bitcoin is warming up: Three scenarios that could shape the next rally
“As of today, the on-chain momentum is in the ‘start’ rally zone (Ratio ≈ 0.8 / 80%). Let’s examine three scenarios for the next six months:
1. Optimistic (Bull)
If the Ratio breaks through 1.0 and holds… pic.twitter.com/SlWx2UGg27— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) May 1, 2025
Considering the dynamics and the current value of the Bitcoin Composite Index 2.0 (≈0.8), the expert outlined three potential scenarios for Bitcoin’s price movement.
Optimistic (Bullish) scenario suggests breaking through the 1.0 level of the indicator and holding above it.
“The NUPL and MVRV metrics will show new momentum, and the price could reach the $150,000-175,000 range, repeating the logic of the 2017 and 2021 cycles,” noted Adler Jr.
Base scenario (Consolidation) — if the metric values remain in the 0.8-1 range. Digital gold will trade in a broad corridor — $90,000-110,000. Most market participants will maintain their positions without risking to increase them.
Pessimistic (Correction). If the ratio drops to around 0.75, short-term holders will start taking profits, and the price could fall to $70,000-85,000.
“Given that a correction has already occurred, the first two scenarios are more likely,” concluded the expert.
At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency is trading at $97,140. Over the past 24 hours, the asset has risen by 3.3%, and over 30 days — by 14.25%, according to CoinMarketCap.
Earlier, CryptoQuant analyst known as Darkfost noted Bitcoin’s approach to the “euphoria zone.”