“Should Have Bought” is a news podcast featuring the ForkLog editorial team and friends, discussing the week’s major industry events and the hottest tokens.
This episode covers: halving anticipation, the “2020 pattern,” Plan B’s new bitcoin price forecast, the chase for the “epic” satoshi, and TON’s rise on announcements.
Participants: ForkLog authors Lena Jess, Alex K., Vasily Smirnov.
Special guest: former CIO of Bitfury Group Alex Petrov.
Post-Halving Predictions
Markus Thielen, head of 10x Research, warned of an impending correction. According to him, markets for risky assets, including cryptocurrencies, are approaching a “critical turning point.”
“Last night we sold everything. […] The main trigger is unexpected and persistent inflation,” the company report states.
Bernstein analysts remain optimistic, forecasting $80,000-90,000 for bitcoin by year-end and $150,000 by 2025. They believe the key driver for price growth will be institutional investor demand for ETFs.
Analyst PlanB stated that the current halving cycle is no different from previous ones. In 2024, he expects bitcoin to reach $100,000, and at its peak the following year, $300,000.
“2020 Pattern”
The observed decrease in the number of dormant bitcoins over the year may indicate the transfer of cryptocurrency from exchanges or its sale by long-term investors, according to a Bitfinex report.
Analysts note that current investor behavior resembles that which preceded the crypto market surge in December 2020.
“This pattern suggests that we may be entering a similar growth phase,” experts emphasized.
Halving vs Mining
The bitcoin halving, which halves block rewards, could significantly boost demand for cryptocurrency and strengthen the mining sector.
Matteo Greco, an analyst at Fineqia International, believes this will prompt digital gold mining companies to optimize energy use, increasing the share of renewable sources. According to researcher Daniel Batten, about 54.5% of bitcoin’s energy consumption already comes from renewables.
Bitfarms CEO Ben Gagnon warned that if bitcoin’s price increase does not offset the reward reduction, older miner models will lose their economic viability.
Thus, the halving could serve as both an impetus for adopting more eco-friendly and efficient technologies and a challenge for outdated equipment.
Chasing the “Epic” Satoshi
The Foundry USA mining pool will distribute profits from mining the first bitcoin block post-halving, known as the “epic satoshi,” among its participants.
This move sparked discussions within the community. Some call the initiative a scam, pointing out that a satoshi is merely a unit of measurement, not something rare or unique.
“Years from now, we’ll look back and laugh at how foolish this scam was. ‘Satoshi’ doesn’t exist. It’s a unit of measurement defining the size of a specific UTXO,” supported skeptics, TFTC media project founder Marty Bent.
However, Ordiscan founder, known as Tristan, suggested that Ordinals collectors might “conservatively” value this exotic asset at $50 million.
When is Notcoin’s Listing?
Notcoin developers have postponed the coin’s listing indefinitely.
The initial plan was to coincide NOT’s exchange debut with the bitcoin halving.
In a comment to Decrypt, the Notcoin team explained the delay as an attempt to “effectively streamline the process.”
Subscribe to the podcast: