New investors in the leading cryptocurrency are incurring losses as the asset has been trading below their average entry price for over a month, according to CryptoQuant analyst Carmelo Aleman.
Short-Term Holders Under Pressure
“Historically, prolonged periods in which STH remain at a loss tend to coincide with weak-hand cleansing phases and supply transfer toward higher-conviction holders.” – By @oro_crypto pic.twitter.com/SFomZxz2Hl
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) December 15, 2025
The realized price for short-term bitcoin holders (STH), who entered the market within the last 155 days, is at $104,000. Since October 30, the digital gold’s price has been moving sideways around $90,000, putting this group of investors under constant pressure.
“STH are extremely sensitive to asset price movements and often determine short-term market dynamics, making their behavior particularly important in the current context,” the expert explained.
The profitability of new investors is assessed using the MVRV indicator, which measures unrealized profit or loss by comparing the current price to the average purchase price. When the indicator falls below 1, it indicates that STH are experiencing losses. Currently, the metric fluctuates between 0.8 and 0.9.
The average loss is approximately -12.6%. According to Aleman, this indicates an active capitulation process rather than passive accumulation.
“Historically, prolonged periods during which STH are at a loss tend to coincide with phases of ‘weak hands’ cleansing and the transfer of supply to higher-conviction holders,” he noted.
Until bitcoin can establish itself above the key level for short-term holders, market conditions for new investors will remain challenging.
The current structure is more akin to a transitional phase than the start of a full-scale bear market, the analyst concluded.
Long-Term Holders
Meanwhile, long-term bitcoin investors (LTH) continue to actively distribute assets, noted analysts at Swissblock.
Bitcoin, what’s the plan?
Long-term holders continue to sell, and distribution has accelerated into this week.
If BTC revisits the $93K–$95K resistance zone, selling pressure is likely to pick up again.
The key: everything depends on selling intensity. pic.twitter.com/mDeOIuKLCy
— Swissblock (@swissblock__) December 15, 2025
According to them, if the price attempts to retest the key resistance zone of $93,000-95,000, a new surge in selling pressure should be expected.
According to Glassnode, since July, this group of bitcoin holders has reduced their reserves by ~500,000 BTC, bringing their share of the total supply to 71.92%—a low since April.
Over the past 30 days, LTH reserves have decreased by 761,000 BTC, noted CryptoQuant.
Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Are Unloading Into Strength Again
“This 30-day LTH distribution spike is one of the largest in the last 5 years, and these usually show up near macro tops, not bottoms.” – By @IT_Tech_PL pic.twitter.com/1Vp7avT648
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) December 16, 2025
This behavior historically coincides with the late stages of the market cycle and profit-taking before a potential peak, aligning with Aleman’s conclusions based on STH behavior analysis.
At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency is trading around $86,900.
A Crucial Week
On December 16, data on unemployment and the business activity index in the US is expected to be released. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe called this day “important for the markets,” including the cryptocurrency market.
Good morning,
Big day on the horizon in terms of macroeconomic data!
Unemployment rate & PMI data.
The first big day for the markets & $BTC.
Pleased to see that we haven’t corrected much more, but #Bitcoin clearly needs to break through the $88K level.
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) December 16, 2025
According to his analysis, digital gold now needs to break through the $88,000 level to continue its growth.
If the $90,000 area is breached, a rally to the $92,000-94,000 range is possible, the expert believes. He suggests this would increase the chances of a surge to $100,000.
“However, if $90,000 continues to hold as resistance, there is a possibility of a significant decline,” added van de Poppe.
Previously, an experienced trader, who wished to remain anonymous, commented to ForkLog on the factors restraining bitcoin’s growth.