Bitcoin’s Uncertain Path: Analysts Weigh Future Prospects

Following a significant correction, the leading cryptocurrency shows no clear signs of a definitive trend. Experts and market participants are divided on Bitcoin’s future trajectory.

Technical analyst and head of Factor LLC, Peter Brandt, believes that digital gold is poised for a major breakthrough. He observes that the coin may be repeating the post-halving pattern of the 2015–2017 cycle.

Price history of Bitcoin Halving Cycles $BTC
Key points:
1. Current post halving correction is similar to 2015-2017
2. Post halving corrections in past two cycles indicate that a new bull cycle high could be many weeks from now pic.twitter.com/2dMvoJcrNx

— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) August 6, 2024

The current 26% correction aligns with a period when Bitcoin fell from $650 to $474 — a 27% drop. Subsequently, the asset rose to $790. 

“Post-halving corrections in the last two cycles indicate that a new bull rally high is reached many weeks after them,” the analyst noted. 

According to Brandt’s chart, the market is currently in a “shakeout” phase, having previously fluctuated around $70,000–73,000. The chart suggests a potential “pump” to $90,000. 

Important to always deal with Possibilities
Not Probabilities
and never Certainties$BTC pic.twitter.com/4xwrcQpcHE

— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) August 5, 2024

“It is always important to work with possibilities, not probabilities, and never certainties,” emphasized the head of Factor LLC. 

Conversely, Marcus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, believes that for an ideal entry into the next bull rally, investors should wait for the price to drop to the lower mark of $40,000. 

At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency is trading at $57,300, having gained 5% in 24 hours. 

According to YouTube blogger Crypto Rover, if Bitcoin fails to hold the support level around $48,000–49,000, it could plummet to $40,000. 

If #Bitcoin breaks this support, $40k is next. pic.twitter.com/nIsdTmr3rS

— Crypto Rover (@rovercrc) August 5, 2024

“I would love to see Bitcoin drop to $50,000 or even $40,000. It would be a great opportunity to make some money,” added Gokhstein Media founder David Gokhshtein.

On August 5, Timothy Peterson, founder of Cane Island Alternative Advisors, suggested that there is an equal chance of seeing digital gold at $40,000 or $80,000 in the next 60 days. 

“Neither Bitcoin nor Ethereum show sustainable growth trends with a high Sharpe ratio that investors in the US stock market have enjoyed with minimal effort,” Thielen emphasized.

According to the head of 10x Research, the current price of digital gold still presents a buying opportunity, but suggests a stop-loss at $54,000, as “the risk of decline remains.”

CIO of Bitwise, Matt Hougan, recalled the last similar correction on March 12, 2020, when “the world realized” the seriousness of the COVID-19 problem. 

“Tech stocks were in free fall, as were commodities. We all thought the global economy would collapse. […] Among all assets, Bitcoin suffered the biggest crash, dropping 37% — from $7911 to $4971. It was a breathtaking one-day dump that wiped out a year’s gains in 24 hours,” the top manager recalled.

He believes a similar situation is occurring now, so it is important to remain calm and ignore sensational headlines in the media. Hougan’s observation of historical data points to a buying opportunity following the recent sell-off. 

“Bitcoin is a volatile asset with big ups and downs. It has always been that way and will be for some time. Such times confirm that timing the [market entry] is a waste of time,” he concluded. 

Earlier, CryptoQuant analysts stated that the price of the leading cryptocurrency has regained key support at $56,000, but uncertain trading indicates risks of a renewed downward trend.

ForkLog previously discussed with experts the reasons for the dump and identified conditions under which major coins will begin to rise. Read the details in the article.