Bitcoin concluded November with a 37.3% increase and is poised to reach six-figure levels in December due to favourable seasonality, according to Bitfinex.
Analysts’ calculations show that historically, in halving years, the asset appreciated by an average of 38.9% in this month.
Experts cautioned that the growth will be volatile, linked to profit-taking by hodlers and BTC-ETF dynamics.
Last week, clients withdrew $135.1 million from exchange-traded funds, while long-term investors reduced their balances by 508,990 BTC.
“Although this is still less than the 934,000 BTC distributed before the March 2024 peaks, ongoing seller pressure requires sustained demand to prevent further price declines,” analysts clarified.
According to Bitfinex, the number of coins held by speculators approached a cyclical peak of 3,282,000 BTC. Historically, the final phase of a bull run emerged after this metric exceeded pre-halving highs.
The current consolidation phase serves as a necessary pause for absorbing profit-taking and adjusting market demand, they concluded.
QCP Capital linked the current correction to reports of the U.S. government moving 10,000 BTC (~$963 million at the time) associated with Silk Road.
Asia Color — 3 Dec 24
1/ Bitcoin soared past $97K before pulling back to hover above $95K. This retrace followed news of the U.S. government moving 10K #BTC (~$963M) linked to Silk Road—a transfer that rattled markets.
— QCP (@QCPgroup) December 3, 2024
Experts noted that in upcoming contracts, expected volatility has shifted further towards puts.
Previously, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju explained the absence of an altseason.
According to crypto analyst and ITC Crypto founder Benjamin Cowen, such assets face a deep correction before a growth season.