Bitwise Analyst Highlights Key Flaw in Bitcoin’s S2F Model

The S2F model overlooks crucial demand factors, warns Bitwise's Andre Dragosch.

The S2F model overlooks crucial demand factors, thus caution is advised when using it to predict the price of the leading cryptocurrency, stated Bitwise’s senior analyst, Andre Dragosch.

🔴 #3 𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗠𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗦𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀 – 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸-𝘁𝗼-𝗙𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝗠𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹

This is my third post in the series on #Bitcoin price prediction models.

As promised, I’ll continue to show different #Bitcoin model forecasts over the coming weeks — each with… https://t.co/bo0xRUz15k pic.twitter.com/80hP9Fn4Bc

— André Dragosch, PhD⚡ (@Andre_Dragosch) October 26, 2025

According to him, S2F relies solely on Bitcoin halvings, ignoring the dynamics of interest in digital gold.

“Today, institutional demand through ETPs for Bitcoin and treasury holdings exceeds the annual supply reduction from the last halving by more than seven times,” he noted.

Dragosch emphasized that exchange-traded funds and other investment instruments have established a price floor for the leading cryptocurrency, maintaining its rate above $100,000. This has fundamentally altered the market structure compared to previous cycles, which were dependent on retail investors, the analyst added.

According to S2F, Bitcoin’s price could reach $222,000 in the current cycle. At the time of writing, digital gold is trading around $115,000.

The all-time high for the leading cryptocurrency was recorded on October 6 at $126,080, according to CoinGecko.

Previously, the creator of S2F, known by the pseudonym PlanB, stated that Bitcoin’s bull phase is not yet over. He claimed that fundamental indicators point to continued growth.

In September 2024, the expert predicted a rally of digital gold to $1 million by the end of 2025.