Bitwise Anticipates Further Bitcoin Decline

In the coming weeks, the price of Bitcoin may continue to fall due to shifting investor sentiment regarding risks. This was stated by André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise in Europe, in an interview with CoinDesk.

The correction in the leading cryptocurrency began on December 18 following the US Federal Reserve’s announcement of a 25 basis point reduction in the key interest rate range to 4.25-4.5% per annum.

According to CoinGecko, on December 20, the rate plummeted to $92,805. At the time of writing, Bitcoin had recovered to $96,000, losing over 8% of its value in a week.

Meanwhile, concerns about a worsening macroeconomic situation have spurred investor interest in traditional safe-haven assets like 10-year US government bonds. Attitudes towards risky investments like Bitcoin have become more cautious and are expected to remain so in the near future, Dragosch noted.

“The Fed is caught between a rock and a hard place as financial conditions continue to deteriorate despite three consecutive rate cuts since September. Meanwhile, actual consumer price inflation figures have accelerated to new highs in recent months,” the expert emphasized.

In his view, the regulator fears a repeat of the double inflation peak of the 1970s-1980s, hence its reluctance to further aggressively cut rates. There is a risk of doing “too little and too late” to prevent the situation, Dragosch suggested.

The Fed is scared of this scenario which is why Powell will probably do too little/too late…

Expect more pain over the coming weeks. pic.twitter.com/pi9dsMIUMU

— André Dragosch, PhD | Bitcoin & Macro ⚡ (@Andre_Dragosch) December 20, 2024

“Expect more pain in the coming weeks,” he stated.

However, the correction opens up opportunities for profitable Bitcoin purchases “on the dip,” as the limited supply remains a factor for the long-term price growth of digital gold, the expert concluded.

In forecasts for 2025, Bitwise specialists named $200,000 as the target price for the leading cryptocurrency.

Experts Lean Towards Continued Bitcoin Decline

An analyst under the pseudonym Rekt Capital noted that more technical indicators are signaling a transition of the asset to a “multi-week correction.”

#BTC

The Weekly support has been lost (blue)

The 5-week technical uptrend is over (orange)

Bitcoin is showing increasing signs of transitioning into a multi-week correction

Any relief rally, if at all needed, into these old supports could turn them into new resistance to… https://t.co/ZpfhWCtdt6 pic.twitter.com/U7d2zGOnpf

— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) December 23, 2024

The failed support levels now act as resistance, confirming further price declines, the expert added.

A crypto investor under the pseudonym Jelle, based on a comparison of Bitcoin’s dynamics with trends from a year ago, suggested that the next growth phase will begin after “a few weeks of struggle.”

#Bitcoin is still closely following the 2023 fractal!

We’re in for a few more weeks of struggle, before the next expansion phase if this keeps playing out the same.

Your job is to survive. pic.twitter.com/cin87HzIsi

— Jelle (@CryptoJelleNL) December 23, 2024

“Your job is to survive,” he summarized.

Trader known as Rager also pointed out historical analogies. He noted that 30% pullbacks during bull phases of the leading cryptocurrency “cannot be called fantastic.” Against this backdrop, a return to $75,000 “does not seem unrealistic.”

In past cycles it’s been the norm for -30% pullbacks during the bull market

This current price action hasn’t been fantastic but it also hasnt been awful

Imagine pulling back to $75k right now for a -30% pullback

Some of you would lose your minds pic.twitter.com/sHtJdy5XSb

— Rager (@Rager) December 23, 2024

Bitcoin maximalist Mark Cullen noted two levels of potential liquidations on CoinGlass — $115,000 and $80,000. He considers it quite likely to see both marks during the holidays, but the question is which will come first.

? #Bitcoin Liquidity Watch! ?

Look at this heat chart! Liquidity is stacked up like presents under the Christmas tree ? at 115k and at sub 80k.

❓ The big question: Which level gets hit first? And will we see a festive swing where both levels get a run?

1⃣ Will we jingle… pic.twitter.com/IZFdb4rcPz

— AlphaBTC (@mark_cullen) December 23, 2024

“It could be a risky adventure,” the expert added.

The media resource The Kobeissi Letter pointed out another factor for Bitcoin’s continued correction — the global money supply (M2). The cryptocurrency’s price has previously followed the trend of this indicator with a time lag of about 10 weeks.

Digital gold reached its peak after M2 hit a record high in October. However, since then, the value has decreased to $104.4 trillion — the lowest since August.

Is Bitcoin overdue for a correction?

In the past, #Bitcoin prices have followed global money supply with ~10 week lag.

As global money supply hit a new record of $108.5 trillion in October, Bitcoin prices reached an all-time high of $108,000.

Over the last 2 months, however,… pic.twitter.com/i80ym4Wu7F

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) December 21, 2024

“If this correlation holds, Bitcoin’s price could drop by $20,000 over the next few weeks,” the channel’s authors stated.

Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes also predicted a deep correction in the leading cryptocurrency around Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20. He cited disappointment with the actual policies of the elected US president compared to expectations as the reason.