Bitwise Offers Optimistic Forecast for Circle After 20% Stock Drop

Circle's shares fell 20% on Clarity Act news; Bitwise forecasts USDC's capitalization to rise.

On March 24, Circle’s shares plummeted by 20% due to concerns related to the provisions of the Clarity Act in the United States. Analysts at Bitwise defended the company, forecasting a rise in the capitalization of USDC to $75 billion.

A lot of people want to invest in the stablecoin boom, and $CRCL is one of the most obvious choices: pure-play stablecoin company, publicly traded.

But how do you value it? @Matt_Hougan says you ask three questions.

— How big will stablecoins get?
— What will Circle’s market…

— Bitwise (@Bitwise) March 25, 2026

“The market reaction is exaggerated. There is nothing in the Clarity Act news that would change forecasts for the stablecoin sector. Interest income has never been the main driver for ‘stablecoins.’ The vast majority of these assets today are held in ways that do not yield interest to holders,” said Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan.

The latest version of the document proposed a ban on accruing income to users solely for holding stablecoins, a point disputed by industry representatives. According to insiders, this wording was indeed included in the final version of the Clarity Act.

USDC does not directly generate profits for holders, but users receive incentives and rewards through platforms like Coinbase. As competition in the ‘stablecoin’ segment grows, any restrictions could impact Circle’s long-term growth prospects, according to the community.

“One popular opinion is that Circle’s market share will shrink as major players — Bank of America, Stripe, Wells Fargo — start issuing their own stablecoins. I’m not so sure. Historically, innovators have been quite successful in defending their early market capture,” noted Hougan.

Coinbase Under Pressure

Similar sentiments were expressed by 10x Research founder Marcus Thielen. He stated that the market is overlooking the long-term consequences. In its current form, the bill impacts Coinbase’s distribution model more than Circle’s infrastructural role.

The exchange derives most of its financial benefit from USDC. For stored balances, Coinbase takes nearly all the interest income. For balances outside the platform, revenue is split roughly 50/50.

According to Thielen’s estimates, Circle pays Coinbase over $900 million annually — about half of its profits.

This model has made the stablecoin business highly profitable for Coinbase. If regulators ban payments similar to yield on balances, part of this advantage will be lost.

“The situation increasingly favors Circle on a relative basis. Federal regulation will shift value towards issuers who operate by the rules, have scale, and a reliable balance sheet,” said the expert.

Challenges for Tether

Pressure on Circle’s shares was also exerted by the news that its main competitor — Tether — engaged an auditor from the ‘Big Four’ (Deloitte, EY, PwC, or KPMG) to conduct the first full audit of USDT.

Tether Signs Big Four Firm to Complete First Full Audit, Setting a New Quality Standard for the Digital Asset Economy

Read more: https://t.co/rtsB7l4nJL

— Tether (@tether) March 24, 2026

Previously, the company only published attestations, which did not meet the requirements of the Genius Act and were repeatedly criticized.

Meanwhile, analysts at William Blair believe that conducting an audit will not become a mandatory competitive advantage for Tether. The issuer may still face difficulties entering the US market.

“A serious obstacle to meeting the Genius requirements will be the illegal use of USDT, which is likely to attract the attention of US regulators,” they noted.

The Tether stablecoin is not officially regulated in the United States, although American users can still hold it. At the end of January, the company launched USAT — a ‘stablecoin’ aimed at the local market.

In March, the Financial Stability Board of the G20 noted an increase in risks associated with fiat-pegged assets.