Bitwise Predicts Tether’s Ascendancy Among Major Companies

Matt Hougan believes crypto skeptics underestimate the potential of digital asset markets.

Tether could surpass Saudi Aramco in value and become the most profitable company in history, according to Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan.

He believes one of the biggest mistakes skeptics make is underestimating the scale of markets that cryptocurrencies aim to disrupt. This leads them to overlook matters that should be taken very seriously.

“Bitcoin is a $2.3 trillion asset. People are often surprised to hear this. There are very few things worth $2.3 trillion, and most of them are well-known brands. For example, Amazon is worth $2.3 trillion, but it is a service many use daily, unlike Bitcoin,” wrote Hougan.

The expert explained the high valuation of the first cryptocurrency by noting that it targets a “very large market” and competes with gold, valued at $25 trillion.

Meanwhile, Ethereum and Solana are vying for issuance, trading, and settlements in stablecoins and tokenized assets.

“Imagine two startups: one trying to disrupt Amazon’s market, and the other the gold market. To reach a $2.3 trillion valuation, an Amazon competitor would need to capture 100% of the market, leading to the bankruptcy of the Seattle giant. Good luck with that. But if a startup aimed to disrupt the gold market, it would be entirely different: to achieve $2.3 trillion, it would need to capture less than 10% of the segment,” explained Bitwise’s CIO.

According to McKinsey, the global payments industry processes 3.4 trillion transactions worth $1.8 quadrillion annually. Estimates from SIFMA and Savills put the combined value of stocks, bonds, and real estate at $665 trillion.

Given the scale of these sectors, no single corporation can capture them entirely, but decentralized systems can, Hougan believes.

Tether’s Primacy

The top manager recalled this phenomenon after rumors emerged about Tether’s plans to raise $20 billion to reach a $500 billion valuation. In his view, closing the deal would make the USDT issuer one of the world’s most valuable startups, alongside OpenAI and SpaceX.

Despite Tether “essentially managing a digital money market fund,” the company occupies nearly 100% of the stablecoin segment in non-Western countries.

“There is a possibility that many developing jurisdictions will shift from predominantly national currencies to using USDT. If this happens, Tether could manage trillions of dollars and all the associated interest,” noted Hougan.

To illustrate, he cited Saudi Aramco. The year 2024 was the most profitable in the corporation’s history, with a figure of $120 million. At current interest rates, if Tether’s assets reach $3 trillion (about 3% of the global money supply), the company would surpass this figure and become the most profitable in the world.

According to the investment director, understanding the situation “opens investors’ eyes to the potential of cryptocurrencies” and drives many of them to seek diversification.

“Investing in cryptocurrency is like investing in early-stage startups: you are hunting for a black swan. If you find one, the potential returns are enormous. But be prepared for many to fail. Even the largest ones. Ethereum, Solana, Ripple, Aave, Hyperliquid, Chainlink — almost any existing crypto project could fail,” Hougan warned.

Tether remains one of the most successful companies in the crypto industry. In the second quarter, the firm reported a net profit of $4.9 billion.

In July, the issuer’s CEO Paolo Ardoino confirmed plans to launch USDT in the American market. He announced Tether’s intention to obtain foreign issuer status for stablecoins under the GENIUS Act requirements. Ardoino estimated the implementation of these plans would take three years.

On September 12, Tether introduced a dollar-backed and fully regulated “stablecoin” in the US, USAT.