The likelihood of a Solana ETF being approved in the United States in 2024 is nil, as it is for 2025. Only a change in the leadership of the SEC could alter this scenario, according to Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas.
Nice flow chart showing how the Solana ETF filings never made it past Step 2 (the SEC failed to ack them) = DOA. So the exchanges withdrew 19b-4s altho the issuers’ S-1s are still active. A snowball’s chance in hell of approval unless there’s change in leadership via @JSeyff pic.twitter.com/e8BNKT33KH
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) August 20, 2024
The expert reiterated his view that a victory by Kamala Harris in the U.S. presidential election in November is unlikely to change the current status quo. Only Donald Trump’s return to the White House might have an impact.
Yes, near-zero chance in 2024 and if Harris wins there’s prob near-zero chance in 2025 too. Only hope IMO is if Trump wins.
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) August 20, 2024
The specialist responded to the negative outcome of the second stage of the application review process for launching the product [when they are published on the agency’s website]. He referenced a flowchart of the procedure by his colleague James Seyffart.
“Dead on arrival. The exchanges withdrew the 19b-4 filings, although the issuers’ S-1s are still active,” commented Balchunas.
The analyst’s reaction followed the SEC’s rejection of proposals to register a SOL-ETF from the CBOE. According to media reports, the decision was driven by concerns over the regulatory status of the asset — the Commission suggested that Solana could be classified as a “security.”
Seyffart noted that the agency “is actively making this argument in the courts and elsewhere” regarding the classification of certain cryptocurrencies, highlighting the discrepancy between recognizing SOL as an “investment contract” and ETH, which does not fit this category.
The SEC *is* actively making this argument in the courts and elsewhere. lol https://t.co/C8EHIoLs7U
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) August 20, 2024
The S-1 application from VanEck remains active. The company considers Solana a commodity alongside the first and second largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization.
Back in July, VanEck’s head of digital asset research, Matthew Sigel, linked the chances of SOL-ETF approval to the outcome of the U.S. fall elections.
Previously, Solana-based funds faced a record outflow of $39 million amid a sharp decline in meme token trading volumes.
What is Solana (SOL)?
