CoinMarketCap Predicts Early End to Bitcoin’s Bull Cycle

The bullish phase of Bitcoin has accelerated, outpacing historical data by 100 days, according to CoinMarketCap’s (CMC) third-quarter report.

? CMC Q3 Report: Crypto’s Rollercoaster Ride! ?

— BTC dominance at 2-year high!
— Stablecoin market cap hits ATH!
— AI & meme coins surge while DeFi struggles!

Let’s unpack the crypto market’s wild Q3. ??

1/7 pic.twitter.com/6Fypo7m39l

— CoinMarketCap (@CoinMarketCap) October 3, 2024

Several factors suggest a potential break from the traditional four-year cycle and entry into a supercycle phase, driven by institutional adoption, ETF launches, and changing market dynamics.

Four-Year Cycles

In recent years, Bitcoin has peaked approximately every four years, followed by a prolonged correction. These cycles are linked to halving—the halving of block rewards, which occurs every 210,000 blocks.

Typically, Bitcoin reaches its peak 518-546 days after halving. This time, the coin is ahead of the “traditional” timeline by 100 days. The current cycle progress is 40.66%, according to CMC analysts.

Based on this, the potential price peak is expected in mid-May or June 2025.

“Despite such early acceleration, there are signs of slowing infrastructure growth, which may indicate a shift in broader market dynamics,” the report states.

This could be an anomaly or the beginning of a long-term change in market behavior and potential entry into a “supercycle” phase, driven by Bitcoin’s growing correlation with traditional assets and institutional adoption.

Fourth Quarter—A Bullish Quarter

CMC experts noted that Bitcoin traditionally showed negative dynamics in the third quarter; 2024 was no exception. In August, there was an 8.6% decline, while July and September saw modest growth of 2.95% and 11.39%, respectively.

Historical data suggests that the fourth quarter could be different:

• October’s average return over the past decade was 22.9%;
• November and December show average growth of 46.81% and 5.45%, respectively.

Best of the Worst

In the third quarter, 19 out of 52 sectors showed positive dynamics. The most notable was the artificial intelligence and big data ecosystem, followed by TRON. Meme tokens also ranked high.

Sectors such as DeFi and infrastructure, lending, yield aggregators, privacy, storage, and governance showed the worst dynamics.

“It seems that in the last quarter there was a shift from DeFi and infrastructure projects towards more speculative and consumer-oriented sectors, such as artificial intelligence, media, and memes,” noted CMC.

USA, India, and Brazil—Key Players

Bitcoin is the most popular coin on all continents, with its share ranging from 45% in Africa to 52% in Oceania.

The United States ranks first in cryptocurrency market share, accounting for 17%. India is second with 9%. Brazil holds 8%.

As reported in the Canaccord report, a Bitcoin rally is inevitable.