CryptoQuant Analyst Predicts Imminent Bitcoin Reversal Amid Open Interest Decline

Open interest in digital gold derivatives hits lowest since 2022, says CryptoQuant analyst.

The total open interest in derivatives based on digital gold has fallen to its lowest level since late 2022, according to CryptoQuant analyst known as Arab Chain.

Bitcoin Open Interest Declines to Its Lowest Levels Since 2022

“Historically, reaching similar levels since 2022 has preceded periods of consolidation or even bullish reversals, particularly if price action begins to stabilize.” – By @ArabxChain pic.twitter.com/sSM4kWEQFJ

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) January 9, 2026

“The current trend clearly reflects a decrease in risk appetite and a significant outflow of liquidity from futures markets on major exchanges,” commented the expert.

The largest decline was recorded on Binance — approximately 1.53 million BTC. It was followed by Bybit (-784,000 BTC), Gate (-505,000 BTC), and OKX (-395,000 BTC).

Similar reductions were observed on Deribit, Bitfinex, and HTX Global, confirming the trend is market-wide rather than localized. Arab Chain interpreted this as a phase of “deleveraging” — a large-scale liquidation of leveraged positions.

This conclusion is supported by the drop in Bitcoin’s price to $90,150 after an unsuccessful attempt to stay above $94,000.

“Historically, reaching similar levels since 2022 has preceded periods of consolidation or even bullish reversals, especially if price action begins to stabilize,” added the analyst.

At the time of writing, digital gold is trading around $90,700. Over the past day, its price has increased by 0.1%.

Glassnode specialists highlighted the following key levels:

• short-term holders’ base cost: $98,900;
• average price of active investors: $87,700;
• true average market value: $81,000;
• realized price: $56,000.

Options

According to Greeks.live, options worth $2.4 billion expired on January 9 — 7% of the total open interest.

January 9 Options Expiration Data
21,000 BTC options expired with a Put-Call Ratio of 1.07, maximum pain point at $90,000, and notional value of $1.9 billion.
126,000 ETH options expired with a Put-Call Ratio of 0.88, maximum pain point at $3,100, and notional value of $390… pic.twitter.com/BIjcLitJh4

— Greeks.live (@GreeksLive) January 9, 2026

The put-call ratio for Bitcoin was 1.07 with a maximum pain point at $90,000, while for Ethereum it was 0.88 with a point at $3,100. Bearish sentiment prevails in the digital gold market.

The implied volatility of the leading cryptocurrency stabilized at ~40%. For the leading altcoin, it decreased to 55%. Experts noted an overall weakening of the downward trend.

Greeks.live also noted a high share of block trades — 70%. This indicates the accumulation of significant cash reserves by market makers and active traders.

“Their main strategic positions are currently focused on monthly call options for Bitcoin and monthly put options for Ethereum, reflecting a differentiated approach to expectations for the two leading assets,” commented the specialists.

Analysts at JPMorgan suggested the end of the sell-off in the crypto market. According to them, current factors indicate a possible bottoming out rather than the start of a new decline phase.