CryptoQuant Analyst Warns of Bitcoin’s Potential Shift to Bearish Phase

Analyst Woominkyu suggests Bitcoin may enter a bearish phase based on BCMI dynamics.

On-chain analyst Woominkyu has suggested a scenario where the leading cryptocurrency might enter a bearish phase. His conclusion is based on the dynamics of the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator (BCMI).

Bitcoin BCMI Update — A Bear Market Scenario Is Becoming More Relevant

“From a data-driven perspective, this opens the possibility that the market is transitioning into a bear phase, not just experiencing a pullback.” – By @Woo_Minkyu pic.twitter.com/wwWhaBWsH2

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) December 24, 2025

The October decline of the metric to 0.5, initially resembling a temporary pause, has evolved into a negative trend. The weakening of Bitcoin alongside the falling indicator values indicates a loss of market momentum.

Currently, the BCMI is below the equilibrium level, yet still significantly above historical bottom zones. In 2019 and 2023, market reversals occurred in the 0.25-0.35 range.

According to the expert, the current picture resembles a shift to a downward trend more than a typical correction. For a sustainable bottom to form, the metric should drop to the lows of previous cycles.

Bitcoin Whale Inflows Halved

In December, the volume of funds transferred by large investors to the Binance exchange halved. This was reported by CryptoQuant analyst under the pseudonym Darkfost.

During December, Whale Inflows on Binance Were Cut in Half

“Monthly whale inflows dropped from around $7.88 billion to $3.86 billion, effectively being halved within just a few weeks.” – By @Darkfost_Coc pic.twitter.com/muHO6Zc5QO

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) December 24, 2025

According to the expert, monthly inflows from whales fell from $7.88 billion to $3.86 billion in just a few weeks.

As Binance leads in exchange flows, the reduced activity of large players indicates a weakening of selling pressure. Fewer deposits mean a lower risk of immediate asset sales, positively affecting the short-term market balance.

However, the overall downward trend does not rule out occasional large transfers. Recently, the analyst recorded a spike in deposits of $466 million from holders with balances of 100-10,000 BTC. Of these, more than $435 million came from wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 coins.

Darkfost noted that tracking whale actions remains a priority: large single transactions can sharply increase volatility or trigger a price correction.

Bitcoin Futures Activity Drops Sixfold

The number of trades with perpetual Bitcoin contracts has sharply declined across all major exchanges. Analysts at Alphractal note a shift in traders’ interest towards Ethereum.

🚨The number of perpetual market trades across all exchanges has dropped sharply for BTC, while more trades are now being processed in ETH.

Between August and November, we witnessed the highest number of leveraged trades in Bitcoin’s history. From Hyperliquid to BitMEX, a total… pic.twitter.com/jiWRBj4r5X

— Alphractal (@Alphractal) December 24, 2025

From August to November, trader activity using leverage was at a historic high. On 19 platforms, including Hyperliquid and BitMEX, up to 80 million trades were recorded daily.

The trend has now changed. The seven-day moving average has fallen to 13 million operations. Such a sharp decline indicates a large-scale reduction in leveraged positions in Bitcoin.

Back on December 23, exchange-traded funds based on the two largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization recorded total outflows of $284.1 million.