The Whale Capitulation Index points to the persistence of negative dynamics in Bitcoin’s price in the future. This conclusion was reached by CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju.
I hate to say this, but it seems like the $BTC bear market confirmed.
Too many whales are sending $BTC to exchanges. https://t.co/DgmLukP4NU pic.twitter.com/AWJ8oVSUkQ
— Ki Young Ju 주기영 (@ki_young_ju) June 21, 2021
Positive readings of the index indicate inflows of assets from the wallets of large Bitcoin holders to crypto exchanges.
According to Ju, if large holders’ trades comprise more than 85% of the total inflow to trading platforms, Bitcoin is likely to enter a bear market or a fake bull market.
This indicator is based on Exchange Whale Ratio, top 10 inflow transactions to total inflows. I’ve been using this indicator for years. If this ratio keeps over 85%(8760h,30d MA) the market is likely to be bearish or fake bull.https://t.co/5CetGyQOXG
— Ki Young Ju 주기영 (@ki_young_ju) June 21, 2021
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades around $29,500. Over the last 24 hours, the price of digital gold has fallen by nearly 10%.
The drop in Bitcoin’s price pulled the rest of the market along. Below is the top ten by market cap.
Across the top-10, Dogecoin posted the deepest decline (-25.1%). Ethereum fell by more than 9.3% to $1,792. Among other notable declines:
- Polkadot — down 22.4%.
- Binance Coin — down 21.1%;
- XRP — down 19.6%;
- Cardano — down 19.6%;
Professional trader Artem Zvezdin shared Ju’s view of the onset of a bear cycle in the market. In an interview with ForkLog, he described the correction seen at the start of last week as a ‘classic liquidity grab,’ a move often seen in traditional assets.
“The bear market in Bitcoin hasn’t disappeared. These movements often arise from the so-called local bottom-buying by retail traders and investors, while large capital continues to push and sell while prices are high. Which is essentially what happened,” said Zvezdin.
According to the trader, volumes in the market indicate an attempt to buy the dip. Bitcoin has broken through the price range where the main buying pressure was concentrated ($32,500-$34,000). Sellers now dominate, and there are no signs yet of a break in the bear trend.
“I expect the market may slow in the $31,000 range and, with a bang and pomp, could fall below $30,000 with a subsequent return to the accumulation zone of $31,000-$35,000 per coin,” added Zvezdin.
Ju did not rule out that bearish sentiment could be short-lived. He said the trend could reverse within a few weeks, as the market looks attractive in the long run from the perspective of supply and demand balance.
To be clear, I expect my $BTC bearish bias won’t last long (maybe just a few weeks) because the market looks good in terms of supply/demand in the long term (e.g., Stablecoins ratio(USD) and SSR)
So don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying it’s over. pic.twitter.com/lfjgzUFyjO
— Ki Young Ju 주기영 (@ki_young_ju) June 21, 2021
Analyst Willy Woo drew attention to Ju’s message, who last week claimed the market was in a bull cycle. He asked the CryptoQuant CEO to provide data on whale behavior during 2017.
In response, one user published a chart illustrating three episodes of large whale deposits onto exchanges. This did not prevent Bitcoin from breaking the $20,000 level in late December, when the previous bull cycle was in full swing.
Here is the 30 DMA compared with the 365 DMA, for #WhaleInflowRatio by @cryptoquant_com . As you can see, in 2017’s we had at 3 waves of whales depositions into exchanges. To me this is a short-term whales-taking-profit! not a sign for the end of Cycle. @woonomic @ki_young_ju pic.twitter.com/A0YsU6pKRA
— CryptoVizArt 📈 (@CryptoVizArt) June 21, 2021
On June 21, Glassnode analysts reported that metrics for active users, on-chain value transferred and transaction fees in Bitcoin and Ethereum networks updated to new lows after the May correction.
Earlier, JPMorgan found confirmation of Bitcoin entering a bear market.
Earlier, on June 19, the author of the bestseller “Rich Dad, Poor Dad” and entrepreneur Robert Kiyosaki predicted “the biggest crash in world history” and predicted Bitcoin’s price would fall to around $24,000.
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