CryptoQuant names the key metric for a bull-run revival

Sustained trading of Bitcoin below $90,000 would shake investor confidence and spur selling, according to a report by CryptoQuant.

Analysts noted mounting doubts after a failed attempt to break the all-time high at $108,000.

Fading optimism is reflected in a marked decline in perpetual funding rates. The lack of a rebound to previous levels has analysts questioning the strength of the bull run.

The current state of the derivatives market signals:

• capital outflows;
• weak bullish momentum;
• risk of a deeper correction.

CryptoQuant said a renewed rally would be signalled once funding costs rise from current levels.

According to analyst Ali Martinez, exchange bitcoin balances fell by 22,000 BTC ($2.1 billion) over the past week.

More than 22,000 #Bitcoin $BTC, worth $2.10 billion, were withdrawn from exchanges over the past week! pic.twitter.com/lE6R9Y75um

— Ali (@ali_charts) January 9, 2025

After the drop to $93,000, the share of open long positions on Binance jumped to 63.2%.

On Jan. 6, with #Bitcoin at $102,000, 56.59% of traders on Binance were shorting. What followed was a 10%, sending $BTC down to $93,000 today. But now, 63.92% of traders on Binance are going long. pic.twitter.com/zXEuZ0yjG6

— Ali (@ali_charts) January 9, 2025

QCP Capital noted growing uncertainty in price action as bitcoin-option maturities lengthen.

In near-dated contracts the volatility component has fallen. As a base case, the firm expects consolidation between $92,000–95,000. A break below the lower bound could extend the move to $90,000.

3/ On the options front:

— The curve has steepened across all tenors.
— Mar-Jun spreads widened by 1.5 vols, while Jun-Dec spreads rose by over 1 vol.
— 17Jan ATM options are now priced 3 vols lower, reflecting front-end selling pressure.

— QCP (@QCPgroup) January 9, 2025

Earlier, Martinez said a decisive close above $100,000 would neutralise the bearish scenario of a drop to $78,000.

Analysts at Galaxy Research forecast bitcoin at $150,000 in the first half and $185,000 in the fourth quarter of 2025.