60% of Ethereum staked coins (10.3 million ETH) are ‘unprofitable’, which rules out their sale after the Shanghai hard fork. CryptoQuant analysts arrived at these estimates.
CryptoQuant: why ETH selling pressure will remain low even after the Shanghai Upgrades. Currently, 60% of staked ETH is at a loss, representing 10.3m ETH. Typically, selling pressure arises when participants have extreme profits, which is not the case for staked ETH currently. pic.twitter.com/Yo1FrnWHOb
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) March 2, 2023
Experts noted that active selling is typically triggered by the presence of ‘extreme profits’.
The forthcoming upgrade will enable users to withdraw ETH from the Beacon Chain deposit contract and introduces a number of system improvements.
As of writing, more than 13% of the circulating Ethereum supply is locked.
According to analysts, in the largest staking pool Lido, with a market share of 30%, the average loss is around 24% (or about $1,000 in equivalent).
Experts noted that there have been no significant profit-taking events in the past.
Technical analysts at Cointelegraph did not rule out a 25% correction after the Shanghai hard fork. They pointed to unsuccessful attempts since August 2022 for Ethereum’s price to break through resistance in the $1650-1700 range.
Staying with the status quo would lead to a sharp pullback toward the major support line — a multi-month uptrend line (shown in black). It sits near $1,250, about 25% below current levels. A breakout of the $1,650-1,700 zone would open the path to $1,925-2,000 (shown in purple).
Experts noted that selling pressure is expected to decline as Ethereum exchange balances shrink.
Currently, platforms have accumulated 11% of the supply, the lowest in five years. In September 2022, the figure stood at 30%, according to Santiment. Analysts noted that this points to a potential easing of selling pressure.
Back in February, the developers of the second-largest cryptocurrency successfully carried out an update Shanghai-Capella (Shapella) on the Sepolia testnet.
Earlier, analysts at Binance Research calculated that only 31% of Ethereum stakers are ‘in profit’ relative to current market quotes.