Ethereum faces the risk of further decline due to the ‘adoption paradox’—a growing gap between network activity and the asset’s price dynamics, noted CryptoQuant analysts in comments to The Block.
If the bearish trend continues, Ethereum’s price could drop to $1500, stated researcher Julio Moreno. Without significant market shifts, the asset could reach this level by the end of the third or the beginning of the fourth quarter.
The ‘Adoption Paradox’
Experts highlighted that last month, the number of active addresses on the network reached a historic high, surpassing even the figures from the 2021 bull market.
However, ETH’s price has fallen more than 50% from last autumn’s peaks. This situation contradicts previous cycle patterns, where increased network activity was accompanied by price strengthening.
This divergence affects not only the user base. CryptoQuant analysts recorded a sharp increase in smart contract and automated protocol activity.
“The historical link between smart contract activity and ETH price has broken […]. In previous cycles, prices showed a clear positive correlation with on-chain metrics: an increase in transactions coincided with the asset’s price rise,” the researchers emphasized.
Ethereum at $2000: A Test of Resilience
Analyst Ted Pillows noted that Ethereum’s price remains above the psychological level of $2000, despite macroeconomic uncertainty.
$ETH is still holding above the $2,000 level.
The macro uncertainty is still there, but Ethereum’s overall strength is good.
For a rally, ETH needs to reclaim the $2,150 level, and a 10%-15% quick rally could happen. pic.twitter.com/JmfoMv9lul
— Ted (@TedPillows) March 12, 2026
According to him, for a “quick 10%-15% rally,” Ethereum needs to surpass the $2150 mark.
Some market observers have already noticed a breakout of the descending resistance level:
$ETH is breaking out 🚀
Time to send it higher. pic.twitter.com/i09BoZfw8P
— Max Crypto (@MaxCrypto) March 13, 2026
Exiting the bearish phase should be facilitated by capital inflows into the ecosystem and a reduction in cryptocurrency inflows to exchanges, Moreno believes. However, according to analyst Merlijn The Trader, CEX holds only 16 million ETH, a historic low.
BREAKING:
Ethereum exchange reserves just hit an all-time low.
Now only 16M $ETH is left on exchanges. Price is at $2,000.
Less supply on exchanges. More demand incoming.
This is what a bottom looks like.Smart money is accumulating. Are you? pic.twitter.com/46zhEwPOjD
— Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) March 13, 2026
“Less supply on exchanges. More incoming demand. This is what a bottom looks like,” the expert emphasized.
In February, investors withdrew 31.6 million ETH from centralized platforms—the highest monthly volume since November 2025.