CryptoQuant: Record Bitcoin Futures Volumes Expose Market Fragility

Record bitcoin futures volumes in 2025 reveal market fragility due to speculative capital reliance.

In 2025, trading volumes for bitcoin futures reached an all-time high even before the end of the calendar year. The market has become overly dependent on speculative capital, according to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost.

Record Futures Volumes Reveal a Fragile Bitcoin Market

“A market driven by futures becomes mechanically more fragile. Volatility is no longer simply dictated by spot supply and demand, but by forced liquidations” – By @Darkfost_Coc

Read more ⤵️https://t.co/ImruyogX5T pic.twitter.com/1VaVgHpR2p

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) December 10, 2025

Binance remains the leader in this segment with a turnover exceeding $24 trillion. This figure is twice that of OKX ($11 trillion) and nearly 12 times the volumes of Hyperliquid.

Traders are extensively using leverage for quick profits, preferring it over spot purchases aimed at long-term investment. Interest in derivatives is rising across all platforms due to improved trading interfaces and the listing of new assets.

According to the analyst, this trend has structurally altered the market, making it “mechanically more fragile.” Price dynamics are now dictated not by the supply and demand of actual coins, but by cascading liquidations and a domino effect.

Darkfost recalled the October crash. At that time, a wave of forced position closures breached key support and resistance levels within seconds. The expert concluded that as long as leverage remains the main driver of trading, bitcoin’s price will continue to be highly volatile and unpredictable.

Fed Signals

The crypto market has entered a wait-and-see mode ahead of the December meeting of the Fed, according to XWIN Research.

Analysts have observed a decrease in the balances of the leading cryptocurrency on major trading platforms. Meanwhile, reserves in USDT and USDC are rising. This is a classic hedging signal: institutional investors are “cashing out,” taking a wait-and-see approach.

Experts noted similarities between the current situation and the period from August to October. Then, funding rates spiked due to an influx of short-term traders betting on a rise before the Fed meeting. Immediately after the regulator’s decision was announced, they collapsed, and bitcoin’s price fell. The market followed the pattern of “rally on expectations—fall on the fact.”

Currently, experts observe similar signs of preparation by large capital:

• open interest in CME futures has stopped growing;
• whale balances on the spot market remain unchanged;
• the inflow of stablecoins to platforms is accelerating.

XWIN Research emphasized: regardless of the regulator’s decision, market volatility will sharply increase this week. The main recommendation is to take care of risk management in advance, rather than trying to catch a local rebound.

According to QCP Capital, the rate decision is already priced in, so the main intrigue will be the tone of Jerome Powell’s statement.

Due to a lack of fresh macro data, the Fed is unlikely to give clear signals regarding January. Market participants will closely watch the press conference for any hints. Meanwhile, long-term rates already reflect expectations of policy easing in 2026.

The next important event is the Bank of Japan meeting on December 19, experts noted. The yield on Japanese government bonds has reached multi-year highs: 10-year bonds are trading at 1.95% (a peak since 2007), 30-year bonds around 3.39%.

The rapid rise in yields is worrying officials. Any unexpected move by the regulator could trigger volatility in global markets.

The industry has “digested” volatility, but a new trend has yet to form, concluded QCP. Key support remains the demand from corporate treasuries.

Earlier, analysts at Wintermute pointed out the “narrowing” of the crypto market to Bitcoin and Ethereum.