CryptoQuant says surging oil is a headwind for bitcoin

CryptoQuant warns surging oil is a headwind for bitcoin.

Amid war in the Middle East, oil has jumped more than 60% since the start of the year. The geopolitical shock could stoke inflation and create a negative backdrop for cryptocurrencies, warned CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost.

Oil Prices Surge Amid Hormuz Tensions: Implications for BTC and Markets

“Historically, periods when oil prices regain strength often coincide with BTC end-of-cycle phases.” – By @Darkfost_Coc pic.twitter.com/DO42U9CWFk

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) March 9, 2026

The rally in crude has been driven by disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil exports and nearly 35% of all seaborne shipments pass. Any incident that blocks or impedes transit is immediately reflected in prices.

According to the analyst, the move will inevitably feed into inflation and hit financial markets sensitive to supply shocks. For volatile, risk-on assets such as bitcoin, that environment is particularly unfavourable.

“Historically, periods of strengthening oil prices often coincide with the concluding phases of the first cryptocurrency’s cycles,” he noted.

The oil shock

A rise in oil above $115 per barrel triggered panic across global markets. Asian indices opened lower, as the region depends on energy imports from the Middle East.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell by more than 6%, while South Korea’s Kospi lost about 8%.

Against this backdrop, trading activity on Japan’s Bitflyer surged, outpacing global venues. The metric jumped 200%—versus 119% on Coinbase and 82% on Binance.

Activity on South Korean exchanges was more restrained: volumes on Upbit rose by 32%, and on Bithumb by 52%.

As traditional markets sold off, Japanese traders were among the quickest to rotate into bitcoin. During Asian hours the cryptocurrency gained 2.05% against the yen (versus +1.86% against the dollar and +1.64% against the won).

At the time of writing, digital gold trades around $67,800. On March 9 the price briefly dipped to $65,700.

Unexpected resilience

Analysts at QCP described bitcoin’s action as “unexpectedly resilient” despite broad weakness across risk assets and global equities. As tensions around Iran escalated, the latter turned defensive.

QCP Market Colour, 09 March 2026
Missiles Over Markets

1/ Iran tensions failed to cool over the weekend, pushing oil above $115 on fears of sustained disruption through the Strait of Hormuz and wider Middle East instability. Global equities have turned defensive.

— QCP (@QCPgroup) March 9, 2026

Even so, some crypto investors continue to hedge downside—mainly via short-dated contracts around $61,000–$64,000.

“However, options flows point to a more nuanced picture. The purchase of a 500x BTC straddle expiring on April 24 at $72,000 suggests expectations of high volatility rather than an inevitable crash,” the experts added.

They also noted the structure of March open interest, with the largest concentration in call options at $75,000 and $125,000 strikes. Hitting those levels is unlikely, QCP said, but the persistence of such positions points to steady demand.

“Bitcoin is still far from ‘digital gold’ status, but its role as a ‘digital emergency exit’ is becoming more noticeable. Especially in the Gulf countries, where currency volatility and political instability are a familiar backdrop,” the analysts concluded.

Hyperliquid

The crude-linked perpetual on Hyperliquid under the ticker CL-USDC hit a local high near $117 (+20% on the day) before pulling back to $101. Daily trading volume topped $1bn.

According to Pine Analytics, on March 8 the combined daily volume of oil derivatives on Hyperliquid in the HIP-3 segment reached $720m. That was the highest on record for a weekend session.

Today is the highest volume day in terms of HIP-3 volume on a weekend, and this is driven by @tradexyz.

Between November 20th and January 12th, tradexyz volume was relatively flat at about $300M–$500M on weekdays and $50M–$100M on weekends. On January 12th, silver started its… pic.twitter.com/hU5ZYWqygS

— Pine Analytics (@PineAnalytics) March 9, 2026

The Middle East crisis sparked a surge in activity on the platform. The United States and Israel started a war against Iran over the weekend, when traditional exchanges were closed. As a result, traders shifted en masse to Hyperliquid, which offers 24/7 trading.

In January the platform experienced a similar burst of interest during silver’s rally, when the metal jumped from $85 to $114 in two weeks. At the peak, futures volumes on the precious metal reached $4.67bn on weekdays and $460m on weekends, the experts noted.

They added that Hyperliquid soaks up demand for traditional assets when usual instruments are unavailable. If the trend persists, the native HYPE token will be well positioned and continue to strengthen relative to other cryptocurrencies, Pine Analytics said.

Over the past day the coin gained 1.8%, and 10.3% over two weeks (CoinGecko).

Earlier in March, analysts at London Crypto Club assessed the impact of the war in Iran on bitcoin’s dynamics, outlining two scenarios.