CryptoQuant: Spot Bitcoin ETF approval would push Bitcoin to $50,000–73,000

The cryptocurrency market’s capitalization could rise by $1 trillion if a spot Bitcoin-ETF is approved in the United States. Analysts at CryptoQuant have provided such estimates.

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Experts noted that the event would unleash the next wave of institutional adoption of the asset class.

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They argue that after Ripple and Grayscale defeated the SEC, the odds of such an outcome rose markedly by March 2024, when a deadline for decisions on the applications would arrive.

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Approval of the product would attract about $155 billion (roughly 1% of AUM of asset-management firms) into the Bitcoin market, potentially lifting the market capitalization of digital gold by $450-900 billion. This sum is equivalent to about one-third of its current value.

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According to the specialists, this elasticity — the ratio they called elasticity — during bull markets ranged from 3 to 6.

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Given this historical relationship, the analysts arrived at the aforementioned $450-900 billion in the scenario of a $150 billion inflow into the market. Price-wise, this implies an 82-165% rise to $50,000-73,000.

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In October, CryptoQuant pointed to the potential for Bitcoin to rise after holding above $27,900.

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Earlier in September, SEC chair Gary Gensler testified before Congress that the agency continues to study the Grayscale ruling, as well as numerous applications for spot ETFs based on digital gold.

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Former BlackRock executive Steven Shonfield suggested that the SEC would approve a Bitcoin ETF within three to six months.