Drawing on historical data, economist Timothy Peterson put the probability at 50% that Bitcoin will rise above $140,000 in October.
Half of Bitcoin’s October gains may have already happened, according to this AI simulation.
There is a 50% chance Bitcoin finishes the month above $140k
But there is a 43% chance Bitcoin finishes below $136k. pic.twitter.com/LPhFr0mry9— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) October 7, 2025
The projection is based on simulations using market metrics since 2015. Peterson stressed the estimates are built on “hundreds of simulations using real data, not human emotions.” A move to $140,000 implies a 20% monthly return, close to the historical October average.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin traded around $121,600, down 1.7% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko.
On-chain metrics and derivatives
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr noted an influx of new buyers.
Over the past quarter, short-term holders’ supply increased by 559K BTC, rising from a low of 4.38 million to 4.94 million BTC.
A significant volume of new buyers entered the market. pic.twitter.com/eW3UsLDWUg
— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) October 8, 2025
Over the past quarter, the supply of the digital asset held by short-term holders rose by 559,000 BTC—from 4.38 million to 4.94 million BTC, he said.
Glassnode pointed to weak support in the $121,000–$120,000 range. A key level sits near $117,000, where 190,000 BTC were last acquired. A pullback into that zone could attract demand.
After breaking above $117,000, more than 95% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply was in profit. Analysts say this is a hallmark of an euphoria phase that often leads to profit-taking and higher risk.
Selling pressure in derivatives has eased markedly, according to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost. The Net Taker Volume indicator, which compares the size of market buy and sell orders, shifted from deeply negative (–$400 million) to neutral.
📉 On a medium-term view, we can see that the selling pressure coming from derivatives has significantly decreased.
—💡 The net taker volume compares the size of sell and buy orders on derivative markets.
⁰When it is largely negative, it indicates that sell volumes are much… pic.twitter.com/KLdLP2TeNO— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) October 7, 2025
“This signals a shift in dominance between buyer and seller pressure,” the expert said.
He added that a similar pattern appeared during the April correction, after which derivatives provided notable support to the market.
Institutional demand and shrinking supply
Net inflows into bitcoin-based exchange products totalled $3.55 billion for the week. Total assets under management reached $195.2 billion. For comparison, silver-backed products manage about $40 billion.
Corporations continue to accumulate Bitcoin as a reserve asset. Brazilian company OranjeBTC, which holds 3,675 BTC worth over $445 million, начала trading on the stock exchange.
Exchange reserves of the digital asset have fallen to 2.38 million BTC, the lowest in five years. The decline in coins available on trading venues points to continued accumulation.
While short-term consolidation is possible, the resilience of derivatives markets and continued institutional adoption support the potential for further gains, analysts concluded.
Earlier, Darkfost reported the return of retail investors to the market amid Bitcoin’s rise to a new all-time high.