Expert Assesses Bitcoin’s Chances of Falling Below $75,000

The recent pullback in Bitcoin has increased the likelihood of its further decline to $75,000 in the first quarter of the year, though the probability remains below 10%. This assessment was provided by Derive, reports Cointelegraph.

Experts estimated the probability at 9.2%. Before testing the psychological mark of $100,000, it was 7.2%.

The analysts’ calculations are based on the implied volatility of ATM options. The increase in the metric from 52% to 76% indicates a growing demand for puts “to hedge against downside risk.”

The last time digital gold was valued at $75,000 was three days after Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election.

According to Bitfinex, the price of the leading cryptocurrency has “increasingly reflected macroeconomic parameters” and “the influence of the broader landscape of risk assets.”

Earlier, CoinDesk pointed to the risks of a “double top” forming in Bitcoin with a target of $75,000.

Back in a previous report, cryptocurrency derivatives trader Gordon Grant noted the resilience of digital gold’s price amid a correction triggered by China’s new AI model, DeepSeek.