Major players anticipate Bitcoin’s rise to $100,000-$118,000 but doubt its breakthrough beyond $120,000 soon, according to data from the Deribit derivatives exchange.
Three huge blocks printed on Deribit today via Paradigm, total of 20K BTC notional!
Trader lifted a long-dated 100k/106k/112k/118k call condor for Dec ’25. Signal is clear: a structured bullish view — expecting BTC to reach the 100–118k zone, not explode past it.
Trade: BTC 26… pic.twitter.com/zSyFgNs7dt
— Deribit (@DeribitOfficial) November 24, 2025
Three block trades with a notional volume of approximately 20,000 BTC were recorded on the platform. A trader purchased a long-dated call condor with strikes at $100,000, $106,000, $112,000, and $118,000 for December.
“The signal is clear: a structured bullish view — expecting Bitcoin to reach the $100,000-$118,000 zone, but not break through it,” the publication states.
When is the Bottom?
Jake Ostrowski, an OTC trader at market maker Wintermute, noted that the market has lost confidence in the “Santa rally” scenario by year-end.
The previously consensus view of a year-end “santa rally” has been priced out the markets. Calls continue to roll down, topside bets are being capped < ATHs & put skew remains bid alongside IV in short-dated contracts. For those looking to time a genuine low, the term structure… https://t.co/SOvELXSjlt
— Jake O (@JO_wintermute) November 25, 2025
“Call options continue to cheapen on roll-downs, growth bets are capped below all-time highs, and the put skew remains expensive amid high implied volatility in short-dated contracts,” he explained.
According to the expert, the main signal for reaching a local bottom will be the normalization of the term structure. He believes it is necessary to wait for the convergence of three factors:
- Reduced anxiety — a drop in implied volatility.
- Return to calm — a shift to “contango,” where long-term contracts are more expensive than short-term ones.
- Alignment of sentiment — a shift in the ratio of call and put prices back to neutral values.
Analysts at Greeks.live also do not expect an improvement in market conditions in December.
Last week’s crypto market witnessed a sharp downtrend, with Bitcoin prices nearing $80,000 on Friday, plunging the market into extreme panic. However, following dovish remarks from the Federal Reserve, which helped stabilize the market, conditions eased over the weekend. Despite… pic.twitter.com/9o7lw0ZBPJ
— Greeks.live (@GreeksLive) November 24, 2025
The options market continues to indicate persistent tension, despite the recovery of digital gold after falling to $80,000.
A key metric — implied volatility — remains at abnormally high levels. A spike in this indicator suggests that players expect more drastic fluctuations and also signals increased uncertainty or fear.
Experts emphasized that the psychological mark of $100,000 remains critically important for options traders.
Changes are also noticeable in the imbalance indicator: contrary to the correction, it did not continue moving in a bearish direction. On the contrary, recovery was recorded for some option expiration dates, experts stated.
“Market expectations for a rebound have strengthened — mainly due to comments from the Fed, which increased the likelihood of a rate cut. This spurred growth in the US stock markets,” they added.
However, supporting factors for cryptocurrencies are weakening — corporate treasury activity has slowed, and ETFs are showing outflows. According to Greeks.live, under such conditions, December is unlikely to bring significant improvement in sentiment.
“The key moment will be the Fed’s decision on interest rates in mid-month — it will determine the market’s future,” the specialists concluded.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $86,900. Over the past 24 hours, its price has decreased by 0.6%, and over the week — by 4.8%.
In November, the ratio of long to short positions on the first cryptocurrency on Binance exceeded 3.8, indicating traders’ belief in a Bitcoin rebound.