A trader using the pseudonym filbfilb, in an interview Cointelegraph, warned of Bitcoin falling from current levels to $10 000–$11 000. In 2018 he gained fame for correctly predicting the end of the bear market.
According to the specialist, Bitcoin has become highly correlated with Nasdaq, which is under heavy pressure due to policy of the the Fed. The first cryptocurrency behaves as a high-risk asset, and not as a hedge against inflation.
filbfilb noted that the forthcoming winter will be a serious test for residents and policymakers in the European Union, whose consequences will negatively affect hodlers. It will be important how Old World countries can cope with the energy crisis.
According to him, everything is in the hands of diplomats who can avert an emergency. Otherwise risky assets face a difficult future, which will also affect the positions of cryptocurrencies. Dialogue with Russia and NATO is important — the earlier it starts, the higher will be Bitcoin’s floor, the expert emphasised.
Unlike previous bear phases, this time everything is a bit different in terms of drivers. From a technical standpoint, on the contrary, a typical correction within the usual time horizon is taking place. Due to the lack of significant trading in the $10 000–$20 000 zone, the decline could last down to $10 000–$11 000.
The trader called the Bitcoin rally in the first quarter of 2023 ‘obvious’. He sees two reasons for this:
- First — a seasonal factor. Downtrends end 1,000 days after the halving (this milestone will occur at the start of next year);
- Second — a turn in sentiment to positive, based on game theory. With a 2/3 probability the expert suggested Europe would endure the coming winter, because if things go badly, that would raise the likelihood of dialogue that brings short-term stability.
The specialist also commented on the upcoming The Merge in the Ethereum network. He noted that the reduction in the asset’s issuance could spur the coin’s growth. At the same time the expert did not rule out a dump after the event itself, citing Bitcoin’s reaction after the halving, which by its effect is similar to the merge.
The interviewee noted the upcoming inflation report in the United States on September 13.
Positive news and the adage ‘buy the rumor, sell the fact’ could drive Bitcoin ahead. Going forward, if no issues arise after The Merge, the advantage will be with Ethereum, he added.
In August, Bitcoin almost doubled the decline of the second-largest cryptocurrency.
On 7 September Bitcoin traded for the first time since mid-July near the $18 500 mark. Two days later the price of digital gold rose back to levels above $21 000.
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