Experts Assess Bitcoin’s Position in the Market Cycle

Despite heightened market activity, the share of “young” UTXO has yet to reach historically peak levels. This was noted by CryptoQuant contributor known as IT Tech.

The analyst observes that in previous cycles (marked 1-5 on the chart), a pattern emerged: peaks were dominated by UTXOs “aged” from one day to three months. The share of recently moved coins reached maximums during market highs, as seen in 2013, 2017, and 2021.

“Current values are still far from the extreme levels recorded at the peaks of previous cycles,” the expert emphasized.

According to him, before distribution begins, market participants are likely to witness another “upward surge” on the charts.

“If long-term holders maintain their positions, this jump could have even more room for growth,” noted IT Tech.

According to Glassnode, the current share of “young” UTXO is only 50.2%.

At 50.2%, the proportion of wealth held by new #Bitcoin investors (24H to 3 months), is still well below the levels seen during previous ATH cycle tops:

?2018 peak: 85%
?2021 peak: 74%https://t.co/hkTSpFVAPG pic.twitter.com/6gcOgIIlvM

— glassnode (@glassnode) January 28, 2025

At the peak of the 2018 bull phase, the figure was 85%, and in 2021 it was 74%.

The MVRV indicator is currently slightly below the 3 mark.

The “red zone” of overbought conditions, indicating the advisability of selling, starts at level 7. At the 2017 peak, the metric reached a value of 10.

Earlier, experts from Copper predicted a Bitcoin price peak at the end of May 2025.