On December 17, Bitcoin broke through the $23,000 level. In a single day the asset cleared three notable levels — $20,000, $21,000 and $22,000.
ForkLog spoke to experts about the reasons for the rapid ascent of the first cryptocurrency and asked for their forecasts for its price trajectory.
According to Gleb Kostarev, director of Binance for Russia and the CIS, the global macroeconomic backdrop has helped Bitcoin gain a confirmed status as a safe-haven asset.
«In our view, the rise in Bitcoin’s price is largely linked to institutional attention. Beyond MicroStrategy, Square, PayPal, Ruffer Multi-Strategies, SBI and many others, which directly influenced the price rise and the change in the status of the historic coin, in recent months Bitcoin has also been added to the portfolios of many other organisations, without announcement», – the expert noted.
Kostarev cited the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, which increased its assets under management by $1 billion in less than a month.
«This may indirectly indicate that new market participants, using new venues for regulated influence over Bitcoin, are the ones who drive prices», – he added.
The fact that large financial institutions have started to view Bitcoin as a legitimate financial instrument is good news for the entire industry, says Dmitry Goroshevsky, CTO of TON Labs:
«Institutions view Bitcoin as a replacement for gold, as a financial instrument. However gold accounts for, as we know, only a small share of global assets».
In this regard Goroshevsky expects a rapid migration of main assets onto blockchain.
«And this blockchain will no longer be Bitcoin or Ethereum, but modern high-speed networks, such as Free TON. Their market capitalization will exceed Bitcoin’s many times over», – the CTO of TON Labs believes.
The economics of Bitcoin, in particular the halving mechanism, makes the leading cryptocurrency a unique and scarcer asset, which also pushes the price higher, continues Vladimir Smerkis, co-founder and managing partner of Tokenbox.
«Bitcoin has already finally left the gray area in which it began — the payment of illegal goods and services — and is becoming a fully independent, the most honest financial instrument», – he noted.
The initially undervalued cryptocurrency industry is now starting to form as a professional financial market.
«I think we could easily see $30,000 in the coming months», – predicts Vladimir Smerkis.
At the same time, the expert notes that a rally of this magnitude will inevitably be followed by a correction:
«I would advise Bitcoin holders to gradually take profits and place bids a little lower, because a correction is inevitable. We will still see Bitcoin trading in the $19,500–$20,500 range».
Head of Data Analysis at CEX.IO Broker Yuri Mazur ties Bitcoin’s rise to the liquidity accumulated by market makers from November 25 to December 15.
«After Bitcoin reached $19,800, many long positions were closed to lock in profits and buying volume declined, so new liquidity was needed to build volume for the continuation of the up move», the analyst explained.
The breach of $23,000 is due to a well-known trader rule that the trend direction is the most likely path for further price movement.
«In this case the trend was up, so the price continued higher. Also an important technical factor was the type of correction that ran from November 25 to December 15 — an ascending triangle. This corrective pattern has a strong upward impulse and contributed to the continuation of the upmove after the correction», said Yuri Mazur.
The current rise in Bitcoin is shaping a phase of FOMO – the fear of missing a profitable buying opportunity, said Exante co-founder Anatoly Knyazev.
«The key role in pushing the price higher was played by positive sentiment across traditional financial markets — U.S. indices hit new highs, European indices rose by almost a percent, the dollar fell to its lowest in the last 2.5 years. There is evident risk appetite in markets, and interest in cryptocurrencies is part of it».
The expert believes the rally will be supported by seeking yield assets, as stock markets have become fundamentally expensive, and bond yields have fallen to historic lows.
«Moreover, central banks’ policy of flooding markets with liquidity fuels distrust in traditional currencies», – added Anatoly Knyazev.
The founder of the stablecoins platform Stasis, Grigory Klumov, said that institutional buying of Bitcoin is always a catalyst for its growth:
«Recently billionaire and head of hedge fund Brevan Howard Asset Management Alan Howard not only invested in cryptocurrencies but also became an investor in One River, which buys Bitcoin and Ether assets, and whose portfolio amounts to $600 million. Therefore I am confident that the most interesting things in the crypto market are just beginning».
After overcoming three important psychological levels, Bitcoin found itself in “free flight,” where there are no known benchmarks. The arrival of institutional players on the crypto market could theoretically mean that Bitcoin is now driven not only by legal but also by price constraints, notes Sergei Troshin, head of Six Nines data center.
«But since Bitcoin is already trading above $22,000, the real limits to growth could be much higher», he believes.
The expert refrained from predicting at what level Bitcoin’s growth would stop, but nonetheless expects a slight correction by year-end to the $20,000–$22,000 range.
«In the first half of 2021 Bitcoin is very likely to continue rising, and little can stop that», Troshin concluded.
Most experts are positive about Bitcoin’s prospects for further growth. Earlier entrepreneur Robert Kiyosaki forecast Bitcoin trading at $50,000 next year, while Guggenheim Partners’ Scott Minerd said the coin’s fair price stood at $400,000.
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