Experts Dismiss Bitcoin’s ‘Santa Claus Rally’

The Fed's rate cut won't spur immediate crypto growth; Bitcoin's ATH delayed.

A reduction in the rate by the Federal Reserve will not be a sufficient catalyst for an immediate rise in the crypto market. The regulator’s cautious stance will delay Bitcoin’s new all-time high at least until spring, analysts warned in a conversation with The Block.

On December 11, the price of the leading cryptocurrency retreated to $90,000, although it had reached $94,500 following the Fed’s meeting. Ethereum also fell below $3,200. The market is following a familiar pattern: prices have declined after seven of the last eight meetings of the American regulator.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell described the rate as being in a “neutral territory,” but emphasized that future decisions would depend on incoming data. A split emerged in the committee: the decision was made with a vote of nine to three, the highest number of dissenters since 2018.

Paul Howard of Wincent noted that the scale of the reduction and the committee’s mixed signals are “insufficient for new highs this side of Easter.” Coin Bureau co-founder Nick Pakrin added that the situation adds uncertainty and dashes hopes for the traditional “Santa Claus rally.”

Meanwhile, the Fed announced the purchase of $40 billion in treasury bills to maintain liquidity. Matt Howells-Barby, head of growth at Kraken, believes this could support the crypto market in early 2026. However, he warned of the risks of policy tightening due to the rotation of voting members of the Fed.

Senior market strategist at Creative Planning, Charlie Bilello, pointed out the paradox of the current cycle.

1. Stocks: all-time high
2. Home Prices: all-time high
3. Gold: all-time high
4. Money Supply: all-time high
5. National Debt: all-time high
6. CPI Inflation: 4% per year since Jan 2020, 2x the Fed’s “target”
7. Fed: cut rates again today & will start QE on Friday pic.twitter.com/h1H7uCUly9

— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) December 10, 2025

According to him, stocks, real estate, gold, money supply, and US national debt are at historic highs, while inflation remains at 4% (twice the target). Despite this, the regulator continues to ease.

“Liquidity wins today, but sustainability will be questioned tomorrow. This is an environment where markets celebrate in the short term, but macroeconomic contradictions do not disappear,” Bilello emphasized.

Amid the correction, some analysts see a favorable entry point. Crypto researcher Quentin Francois stated that “extreme oversold levels are extreme opportunities.”

Extreme oversold levels are extreme opportunities pic.twitter.com/8ZJT32TkIg

— Quinten | 048.eth (@QuintenFrancois) December 11, 2025

His words are supported by fund flow data. Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $224 million in net investments.

Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, described the situation as a “hawkish cut.” According to him, institutions continue to buy the dips: since December 1, large wallets have accumulated over 42,500 BTC. The price pressure is mainly from retail sales.

Earlier, Saad Ahmed, head of the Asia-Pacific division of the Gemini exchange, stated that the cryptocurrency market lacks the volatility needed to launch a full-fledged altcoin season.