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Experts point to potential spike in cryptocurrency market volatility

Experts point to potential spike in cryptocurrency market volatility

The ratio of open interest (OI) in Bitcoin and Ethereum futures and perpetual contracts to their market capitalisation reached a record. Against the backdrop of the current consolidation, analysts at Arcane Research said this could signal a sharp intensification of volatility.

OI to market capitalization in Bitcoin reached 3.21%, and in Ethereum 4.24%.

Experts point to potential spike in cryptocurrency volatility
Dynamics of open interest of Bitcoin and Ethereum (futures and perpetual contracts combined) to their market capitalisation. Data: Arcane Research.

Analysts noted that this ratio remains near peaks despite The Merge. In anticipation of this event, many players hedged or opened directional positions.

To mitigate potential “brutal” deleveraging, experts proposed straddle strategies. They allow bets on a structural shift in volatility.

The implied volatility parameter in Bitcoin options fell to multi-month lows.

Bitcoin options volatility dynamics
Dynamics of monthly and three-month implied volatility in Bitcoin options. Data: Arcane Research.

Analysts at Glassnode did not rule out that the current phase could last several more months.

Earlier, former manager of the hedge fund Cramer & Co. and host of Mad Money on CNBC, Jim Cramer, said that tightening monetary policy would lead to the “washout” of speculative instruments such as digital assets.

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