Experts say Bitcoin’s drop was driven by inflated buyer expectations.

Elon Musk’s tweets about the centralisation of Bitcoin and the ban on supporting cryptocurrency businesses in China became among the main reasons for Bitcoin’s decline on May 19, down to around $30,000. As of writing, the asset’s price had returned to around $38,000.

ForkLog spoke to experts about the outlook for Bitcoin’s price and the risks of selling by large investors.

The conditions for the downturn in the crypto market emerged last week with Tesla’s decision not to accept Bitcoin as payment and rumours of a possible sale of the coin from the company’s assets.

“Elon Musk’s actions have disappointed investors, as the hopes for Bitcoin entering the realm of major multinational companies have not yet materialised,” said Yuri Mazur, head of the data analytics department at CEX.IO Broker.

Bearish sentiment among market participants was compounded by news that cryptocurrency-related businesses were banned in China.

As Gleb Kostarev explained, the National Internet Finance Association of China, the China Banking Association and the Payment Clearing Association — none of which are regulators — actively supervise the work of their members and adherence to the policies they have adopted.

“The market now fears that, following China, a ban could be introduced in other countries,” Kostarev added.

China accounts for a large share of mining capacity and a significant portion of the e-commerce market to which cryptocurrencies are linked.

Yanis Kivkulis, Exante’s leading strategist, believes the drop is driven by broad investor disappointment in cryptocurrency dynamics, and that Musk’s tweets and China’s bans have “fallen on fertile ground.”

“The price is being pulled up by new buyers expecting price growth. Without such momentum the market over the past month would have been vulnerable. At first it was greed, then news-driven speculation, and now the liquidation of margin positions and a total risk-off in cryptocurrencies,” he noted.

A breach of the key technical barrier could provoke further selling.

“A number of analysts say there could be a drift of institutional investors from cryptocurrencies to traditional assets. But in the current environment there could also be an inflow of institutions, as the market is becoming attractive to large buyers,” Kostarev said.

The risk of whale outflows from cryptocurrencies is not ruled out, says Yuri Mazur:

“But there is no need to dramatise the situation, as a price drop could provide a solid base for long-term long positions by large investors. Sell-offs under stop-loss levels may occur, but they are likely to be picked up by arbitrageurs, and the market will stabilise.”

Yanis Kivkulis suggested that large investors had been quietly dumping the asset in previous months, and now were liquidating via stop orders, intensifying the sell-off, which at one point exceeded 20%.

“It is not inconceivable that, right now, the same people who did in the stock market a year ago—start buying the dips in cryptocurrencies. But history also suggests that the events of this May could repeat major reversals seen in 2013 and 2018, after which four years were required to reclaim historic highs,” reminded the Exante leading strategist.

Under the pessimistic scenario from CEX.IO, Bitcoin could retreat to $30,000–$35,000 by June. Bitcoin is currently trading around $37,000.

“This fits a corrective scenario with a subsequent return to a modest bullish trend and a range of $50,000–$55,000. However we do not rule out that during this week Bitcoin may attempt to test levels near $30,000. In that case a brief touch of $26,000 is possible,” said Yuri Mazur, a market analyst.

The level around $31,000—the January correction low—will be a test of Bitcoin’s resilience, continues Yanis Kivkulis. At the same time the market could display substantial price swings:

“If selling pressure overcomes, the price could fall very quickly to $23,000, where Bitcoin traded at the end of last year. If a rebound develops, bulls will only be able to celebrate victory above $50,000,”

According to Sergei Troshin, head of the Six Nines data centre, Bitcoin’s price will stabilise around the current level with a plus-minus 15% deviation and gradually resume its rise.

“After such a sharp correction, the rebound has been measured in months and even years. Bitcoin will not quickly return to its previous levels,” he concluded.

Follow ForkLog’s Telegram updates: ForkLog Feed — the full news feed, ForkLog — the most important news, infographics and opinions.