Glassnode analysts have observed the consolidation of the leading cryptocurrency’s prices near key on-chain levels. The market requires confirmation of demand to avoid further structural weakening and a price decline.
Stress Builds Below Resistance$BTC is consolidating with muted volumes, as spot bid rebuilds slowly while options markets lean increasingly defensive.
Read the full Week On-Chain👇https://t.co/gHlpg5XSxZ pic.twitter.com/eaSm7G9vTI
— glassnode (@glassnode) January 28, 2026
Digital gold is trading below the cost basis of short-term holders, which stands at $96,500. Experts noted similarities between the current market structure and downturn periods in the first quarter of 2022 and the second quarter of 2018.
The critical support level is at $83,400. Losing this threshold threatens a decline to the “true average market price” of $80,700.
The share of short-term investors with unrealized losses has decreased to 19.5%. This is far from capitulation (55%), yet this group is sensitive to downturns—breaking support could increase selling pressure.
More than 22% of the bitcoin market supply is “in the red.” If the decline continues, long-term holders may start realizing losses, triggering a spike in volatility.
The liquidity situation has stabilized:
- outflows from spot bitcoin ETF have slowed, returning to neutral levels;
- Binance leads the spot market with a moderate recovery in purchases;
- activity on Coinbase remains subdued, indicating weak momentum from American investors.
The derivatives market shows caution. Funding rates for perpetual futures are neutral, with no speculative overheating. Traders are hedging short-term risks through options but do not anticipate a crash.
However, dealer positioning (“short gamma” below $90,000) poses a risk of accelerated decline due to actions by market makers. To resume sustainable growth, fresh liquidity inflow into the spot market is necessary.
Earlier in January, experts from Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode noted the recovery of the market following the October deleveraging.