A sharp increase in the “network wealth” of new Bitcoin investors, coupled with active coin distribution by hodlers, indicates a transition to the late stage of a bull market, according to Glassnode.
#Bitcoin continues trading above the psychologically important $100k price level, supported by a consistent inflow of capital.
Long-Term Holders are capitalizing on this liquidity, taking the opportunity to distribute supply at scale, setting a new ATH in profit realized of… pic.twitter.com/sW8EUM1UBe
— glassnode (@glassnode) December 18, 2024
Analysts noted the similarity in price trajectories across all bullish trends of the first cryptocurrency, despite significant differences in scale, participant composition, and market structure dynamics.
In this cycle, the largest drawdown reached 32% on August 5, 2024. For previous market phases, this figure ranged from 36% to 71%.
The reduction in volatility is attributed to the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs and growing interest from institutional investors.
The moderate nature of pullbacks was also explained by the restrained volume of unrealized losses among short-term investors. Extreme values of this parameter are associated with deteriorating conditions and subsequent sales.
The absence of cascading realized losses is confirmed by relatively small losses by speculators as a percentage of invested capital.
On the chart, analysts highlighted in blue the periods when the mentioned metric and the magnitude of recorded losses deviated from the average by more than one standard deviation.
A similar situation in the current cycle was observed only once—during the unwinding of carry trade positions on the Japanese yen in August.
The activation of hodlers after a new ATH above $100,000 led to a daily realized profit volume increase to a record $2.1 billion. The stability of quotes near the established marks indicates a similarly high inflow of “fresh” capital.
Sales by long-term holders increased the share of “network wealth” within the recently moved supply.
Experts noted that the share of “new investors” has not yet reached the levels of previous all-time highs, which may indicate a lack of market euphoria.
The supply structure indicates continued hodling by participants who have held coins for at least three years. Unlike investors with a 6-12 month horizon, who make up the majority of sellers, these players are targeting higher prices.
Earlier, Glassnode presented an “on-chain path” for Bitcoin to the landmark $100,000.
Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes predicted a “painful collapse” of the cryptocurrency market around the inauguration day of Donald Trump on January 20, 2025.