Even with prices about 12% below ATH, long-term holders of the first cryptocurrency (LTHs) are still distributing, but at a slower pace, Glassnode analysts wrote.
Even at prices about 12% below ATH, #Bitcoin Long-Term Holders (LTHs) are still distributing, but at a slower rate. Yet, the 30-day percent change in LTH supply suggests that the rate of distribution has likely peaked, reaching extremes seen in previous cycles. pic.twitter.com/3ENkHW8Pvc
— glassnode (@glassnode) January 10, 2025
According to them, the 30-day MA of the metric suggests the pace of distribution has reached extremes seen in previous cycles.
Does this suggest the conclusion of the bull market? Not necessarily. In past cycles, price continued to climb even after LTH distribution peaked. This infers that a peak in distribution doesn’t always align with an immediate macro top. pic.twitter.com/3ZTY7Tu6wm
— glassnode (@glassnode) January 10, 2025
“Does this signify the end of the bull market? Not necessarily. In past cycles, price continued to rise even after LTH distribution had peaked. This means that a peak in distribution does not always coincide with the immediate macro top,” the experts explained.
They highlighted another factor: the “loss-making” supply held by HODLers is near zero.
Another factor to consider: #Bitcoin LTH supply in loss remains at 0%. Nearly all Long-Term Holders are still in profit. Historically, when LTHs experience persistent losses which grow in severity, it has often marked the true end of a cycle. For now, that’s not the case. pic.twitter.com/Hwu5E6hNm3
— glassnode (@glassnode) January 10, 2025
“Almost all LTHs remain in profit. Historically, when these market participants experience persistent losses that grow in severity, it has often signalled the end of a cycle. For now, that is not the case,” they stressed.
Glassnode also noted a rising share of supply controlled by “new investors”. Coins younger than three months now account for 49.6% of “network liquidity”. At the peaks of the 2018 and 2021 cycles, this figure reached 85% and 74%, respectively.
The percentage of #Bitcoin wealth held by new investors (coins aged < 3m) has surged, now representing 49.6% of the network liquidity. This infers that mature investors have meaningfully distributed coins across the uptrend, with new demand absorbing the sell-side pressure. pic.twitter.com/1qX9EuVgGA
— glassnode (@glassnode) January 10, 2025
“This means that experienced investors have materially distributed coins throughout the uptrend, while new demand is absorbing sell-side pressure,” the experts explained.
Technical analyst Ali Martinez agreed with the researchers. He noted that spikes in distribution “have historically correlated with local or market tops”.
Earlier, Glassnode analysts observed a fading of “speculative dynamics” in bitcoin futures.