Open interest in futures on the first cryptocurrency shows “declining speculative momentum”, Glassnode analysts observed.
#BTC Futures Open Interest (OI) shows declining speculative momentum. The mid-term trendline (30-day SMA) peaked and is now slightly declining, while the short-term trendline (7-day SMA) has fallen below it. This indicates that traders have been closing positions, in response to… pic.twitter.com/k1sO5yJTKh
— glassnode (@glassnode) January 9, 2025
They said the metric’s mid-term trendline (30-day SMA) has peaked and is now easing lower; the faster 7-day SMA has crossed below it.
“This indicates that traders are closing positions in response to uncertain market conditions,” the analysts explained.
Ethereum futures largely mirror the pattern above.
#ETH Futures OI has mirrored #BTC’s pattern with the mid-term trendline peaking in mid-December. However, the short-term trendline has since rebounded, indicating that traders are reopening positions after an initial reduction, and suggesting a renewed speculative interest. pic.twitter.com/9iw1KSTfdR
— glassnode (@glassnode) January 9, 2025
“However, since then the short-term trendline has rebounded — this means that traders are reopening positions after the initial reduction; a renewed speculative interest,” the experts noted.
Solana futures tell a slightly different story: the 7-day SMA is above the 30-day and continues to rise. That suggests traders are adding positions “in anticipation of volatility”.
#SOL Futures OI shows increasing speculative momentum. The short-term trendline (7-day SMA) has remained above the mid-term (30-day SMA) and is continuing to rise, reflecting that traders are adding positions and potentially positioning for increased volatility. pic.twitter.com/gVPA51EpFu
— glassnode (@glassnode) January 9, 2025
Positive signals
Technical analyst Ali Martinez noted that more than 66% of traders on Binance are “sitting in longs”, betting on a bitcoin rebound.
Now 66.38% of traders in Binance are betting #Bitcoin $BTC will rebound! Either they know something we don’t, or bunch of people are about to get liquidated. https://t.co/vLLfdaQu9L pic.twitter.com/huxRULNX5J
— Ali (@ali_charts) January 9, 2025
“Either they know something we do not, or this group of people is about to be liquidated,” the expert said.
A CryptoQuant contributor going by CryptoOnchain is confident that the first cryptocurrency is still some way from its price peak — the MVRV indicator has not yet reached extremely high levels.
100-day moving average of MVRV: Bitcoin has not yet reached the top price of this cycle
“MVRV metric reached the value of 3 at the market tops in the past two cycles, whereas it currently stands at 2.14… it can be said that Bitcoin is preparing to move towards the top price of… pic.twitter.com/YlNLQwgE3w
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) January 9, 2025
“The MVRV metric reached a value of 3 at market tops in the last two cycles, whereas it currently stands at 2.14,” the analyst said.
In his view, the first cryptocurrency will set a new all-time high in the coming months.
Earlier, Glassnode’s James Check noted a decline in demand for bitcoin.