Google’s Quantum Chip Sparks Bitcoin Security Concerns

Experts from Google Quantum AI unveiled the latest quantum chip, Willow, which has caught the attention of the crypto community as a potential threat to Bitcoin. 

According to Hartmut Neven, head of the tech giant’s division, the chip completed a standard benchmark calculation in under five minutes. In comparison, one of the fastest modern supercomputers, Frontier, would take 10 septillion years—a figure far exceeding the age of the universe.

Neven highlighted Willow’s primary advantage as its ability to exponentially reduce errors as it scales with more qubits. He emphasized that this addresses a “key problem the industry has worked on for nearly 30 years.”

“This historic achievement is known in the field as ‘below threshold’—the ability to reduce errors while simultaneously increasing the number of qubits,” Neven added.

Google CEO Sundar Pichai stated that Willow is an important step towards creating a “useful quantum computer” with practical applications in drug discovery, fusion energy, battery design, and more. 

We see Willow as an important step in our journey to build a useful quantum computer with practical applications in areas like drug discovery, fusion energy, battery design + more. Details here: https://t.co/dgPuXOoBSZ

— Sundar Pichai (@sundarpichai) December 9, 2024

The release has drawn attention from the crypto community, concerned about the threat of blockchain decryption through quantum computing. In October, Chinese scientists conducted successful attacks on certain crypto algorithms during experiments.

Diverging Opinions on Bitcoin’s Quantum Threat

Kevin Rose, a partner at True Ventures and former Google product manager, addressed the risk of Bitcoin being compromised by Willow. He noted that a quantum computer with approximately 13 million qubits is required for this, while the chip contains 105. 

Q: Can Google’s Willow crack Bitcoin?

Estimates indicate that compromising Bitcoin’s encryption would necessitate a quantum computer with approximately 13 million qubits to achieve decryption within a 24-hour period.

In contrast, Google’s Willow chip, while a significant…

— Kevin Rose (@kevinrose) December 9, 2024

“We still have a long way to go… Nevertheless, this is a remarkable leap forward in quantum computing,” he added.

One user disagreed with these conclusions. Based on the required figure of 13 million qubits, decrypting the SHA-256 algorithm of the first cryptocurrency is theoretically possible in a day using 124,000 Willow chips, he calculated. For a year-long period, 340 Google chips would be needed.

Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Fund, stated that optimists in their forecasts do not account for the exponential trajectory of technological development. As an example, he cited achievements in AI that “we could not have imagined not long ago.”

The level of Quantum Computing skepticism today reminds me of the average person who spends 10 minutes researching Bitcoin and then dismissing it as valueless.

Quantum Computing is real. It will change the world. MASSIVELY.

QC will break Bitcoin if we do not upgrade it. The…

— Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) December 10, 2024

Moreover, it is necessary to distinguish between logical and physical qubits, which relates to error correction. For a successful attack on SHA-256, only 2,500 logical units are needed, and several large companies aim to achieve a figure of 3,000 in the next five years, the expert emphasized.

In his view, actions to protect Bitcoin from the quantum threat must begin now, as any changes to the protocol will take considerable time.

According to a post on the BitcoinTalk forum in June 2010, the creator of the first cryptocurrency, Satoshi Nakamoto, considered the threat from quantum computers as extremely unlikely at that time. However, he suggested that in such a case, the network could gradually transition to a more secure algorithm like SHA-512.

Earlier, Ava Labs CEO Emin Gün Sirer proposed freezing 1 million BTC belonging to Bitcoin’s inventor due to the growing risk of theft through quantum computing. The coins are stored in old-format P2PK addresses.