The bear phase of Bitcoin is expected to end in about 250 days if the market cycle repeats, according to Grayscale Investments analysts.
The length, range, and recovery time of past market cycles may hold important lessons for our present cycle. Read the latest report from @Mattmaximo1 and @mzhao8 to learn more: https://t.co/N81LZ4awoz
— Grayscale (@Grayscale) July 16, 2022
Analysts estimate that Bitcoin cycles last about four years, or roughly 1,275 days on average.
The trigger for entering the bear phase is a realized price falling below the market price. This concerns the MVRV indicator, which ForkLog discussed in its cards. In March 2021, experts excluded the signal from consideration, citing the shock caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
The last time the realized price fell below the market price occurred on June 13, 2022. Historically, this condition lasted an average of 250 days. By July 12, 2022, only 21 days had passed since the start of the phase.
According to historical data, Bitcoin’s bull phases have tended to last longer. If in 2012 the market took 603 days to reach a peak, in 2016 and 2020 the durations were 786 and 952 days, respectively.
With each successive iteration, the duration lengthened by about 180 days. Analysts linked this to the market’s increasing maturity.
Overall, for forming the full cycle from 2012 to 2016, Bitcoin took roughly four years (about 1,290 and 1,257 days in those cases, respectively). It took 391 and 364 days to fall 73% from the peak in 2012 and 84% in 2016.
The duration of the current 2020 cycle reached 1,198 days as of July 12, 2022. In other words, another roughly four months may pass before the realized price exceeds the market price.
The record high was reached 222 days ago. This implies another five to six months of downward or sideways price movement. Historically, market bottoms have occurred a month earlier each time, the analysts explained.
Provided that repetition of market history, the current levels present a favorable opportunity for long-term investors to open positions, Grayscale Investments concluded.
ForkLog is not responsible for readers’ investment decisions.
As reported in Bloomberg’s poll earlier, Bitcoin’s price is more likely to fall to $10,000 than to return to $30,000.
In July, the agency’s strategist Mike McGlone forecast Bitcoin would rise in the next six months.
Earlier, Rockefeller International head Ruchir Sharma noted that Bitcoin must shed excess leverage to regain resilience.
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