Solana’s value could increase by 1.4 to 8.9 times if spot exchange-traded funds based on the cryptocurrency are approved in the United States. These estimates were presented by market maker GSR.
“Changes are already happening because Donald Trump has once again started supporting the industry. This has forced Democrats to soften their stance on digital assets,” wrote the analysts.
GSR expressed hope that Trump and the liberal chairman of the SEC will pave the way for the emergence of numerous crypto products.
A catalyst could be the adoption of a bill on the structure of the digital asset market, defining securities and commodities, experts noted.
Specialists evaluated various cryptocurrencies based on market demand and decentralization criteria. They concluded that Solana has the greatest chance of joining the list of registered ETFs after ETH.
Analysts mentioned the advantages of Solana’s speed and scalability, achieved through the Proof-of-History consensus algorithm. They also praised the blockchain’s ability to process transactions in parallel, allowing for greater performance of each node.
In the relatively high hardware requirements of the network, specialists saw potential for increased efficiency.
“Solana may be the first to truly solve the blockchain trilemma and ultimately realize the vision of synchronizing global state at the speed of light,” they wrote.
The market maker intends to open a long position on the asset due to its weak performance relative to the market.
GSR calculated that Bitcoin rose from $27,000 in October 2023 (when “market participants began to consider the approval of an ETF as a real possibility”) to the current $63,000, marking a 130% increase.
“Solana could grow 1.4 times under a ‘bearish flows’ scenario, 3.4 times in a base scenario, and 8.9 times in a ‘blue sky’ scenario. There is reason to believe that the impact could exceed these estimates, as unlike digital gold, SOL is actively used for staking and in dapps. The relationship between relative flows and relative size may be nonlinear,” the specialists concluded.
On June 27, VanEck filed a form with the SEC to register an exchange-traded fund based on Solana cryptocurrency. The company is the issuer of one of the 11 BTC-ETFs that received approval in January.
In June, digital asset manager 3iQ filed an application to register the first Solana-ETF in Canada with an option to receive staking rewards (6-8% per annum).
Earlier, the possibility of the asset becoming the next candidate for an exchange-traded fund launch was suggested by Matrixport co-founder Daniel Yan. Standard Chartered’s head of research Geoffrey Kendrick also predicted the emergence of an ETF on SOL in 2025.
This view is shared by Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse and Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz.