Merely surpassing Bitcoin’s current all-time high of around $74,000 is insufficient to kickstart an altcoin season, according to analysts at Hashkey Capital.
Read our latest report — Why We Are Bullish on Altcoins to stay ahead?https://t.co/G8zkOwHtfx
— HashKey Capital (@HashKey_Capital) October 25, 2024
Historically, market rallies beyond the leading cryptocurrency are linked to an increase in its market dominance index to levels between 62-70%, experts noted.
To meet this condition, the price of digital gold must reach $76,000-$108,000.
“In an optimistic scenario, an altcoin season becomes most likely when Bitcoin’s price exceeds $80,000,” wrote analysts at Hashkey Capital.
The first cryptocurrency’s quotes traditionally show an upward movement in the fourth quarter of the year — an average increase of about 40%, experts reminded. Additionally, following the US elections (this year on November 5), the price of digital gold typically continues to rise for up to six months.
The strongest growth in altcoins is observed three months before Bitcoin reaches new local highs.
Among the “reliable foundations” of the expected altcoin season, analysts named:
- Solana — growth in on-chain activity due to a meme token boom, network collaboration with major TradFi players (Franklin Templeton and Citibank), low network costs, and an active community;
- Chainlink — prospects as an oracle provider for the expanding RWA segment;
- DeFi — liquidity inflow amid the US Federal Reserve’s key rate reduction.
“Headwinds” could include planned token unlocks of approximately $155 billion and issues in Ethereum. The March Dencun hard fork significantly reduced fees for L2 solutions in the Ethereum ecosystem. The main blockchain’s fee volume decreased, and the cryptocurrency returned to an inflationary model. Activity shifted to the second layer, and Vitalik Buterin warned of fragmentation risks, experts noted.
“Despite this, Ethereum is unlikely to become a low-profit operator due to its relatively small capital expenditures. Although competitors emerge in every cycle, this does not weaken the blockchain’s strong position,” they emphasized.
Earlier, technical analyst Peter Brandt saw the potential for a 27-fold increase in Solana.