HTX Research: Bitcoin Surpasses $100,000, Yet Options Market Shows No Clear Trend

Despite Bitcoin’s recovery to $101,000, the options market does not confirm a strong trend, according to the DeepThink report by analysts from the cryptocurrency exchange HTX.

From May 9 to 12, a meeting is expected in Switzerland between U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamison Greer with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng to “ease trade tensions.” The discussions will cover the removal of increased tariffs and the easing of export controls.

The news sparked optimism in the markets—Bitcoin rose by 3.6%, surpassing the $97,000 mark. Currently, the leading cryptocurrency is trading around $99,000, but the options market shows no clear trend.

“According to Deribit, implied volatility on calls expiring in June and July is rising moderately. Meanwhile, 25-day risk reversals remain neutral or slightly bearish, and the skew curves are relatively flat.

Notably, large gamma positions are concentrated in the $95,000–$100,000 range. This indicates that Bitcoin is currently in a zone of ‘high volatility with low confidence,’ awaiting external macroeconomic triggers,” the HTX Research report states.

HTX Research analysts believe that if May and June data on inflation and employment are strong, and the Fed delays rate cuts, this could lead to a Bitcoin correction. In the event of slowing inflation and rising unemployment, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is likely to soften his rhetoric, which would be a stimulus for the continuation of the bullish trend.

On May 7, the Fed maintained the key interest rate at 4.25-4.50% for the third consecutive time.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell took a conservative stance at a press conference, stating that “now is not the time to start cutting rates.” According to him, the U.S. economy still faces persistent inflation above the 2% target level.

Additional inflationary pressure may come from trade factors, including recently imposed tariffs. However, the head of the regulator noted that the key trigger for changing monetary policy will be the state of the labor market, not just inflation indicators.

“In April, the number of non-farm jobs in the U.S. increased by 177,000, exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. Most new jobs appeared in healthcare, finance, and transportation sectors. Meanwhile, federal employment decreased by 9,000 people due to budget-saving measures. Despite this, the labor market remains resilient and shows no signs of systemic weakening,” the report states.

Against this backdrop, Powell emphasized that the key factor for changing monetary policy will be not only inflation but also the unemployment rate.

Analysts at HTX believe that only a significant reduction in employment or an increase in unemployment above 4.5% could push the Fed to cut rates, even if inflation remains above the target level.

“While markets expect three rate cuts in 2025, the Fed appears to be adhering to a ‘delayed transition’ strategy, where decisions are data-driven. Investors should beware of emotional trades that get ahead of macroeconomic realities, especially considering that key economic indicators do not yet show clear signs of deterioration,” HTX Research concludes.

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