The price of Bitcoin could fall to $30,000 as the asset bubble deflates. This view was voiced by specialists at investment firm Invesco in their list of “unlikely, but possible” outcomes for 2022.
“The mass marketing of Bitcoin reminds us of the activity of stock brokers on the eve of the 1929 crash,” the experts wrote.
In their view, the decline from a high of $42,000 in early January exactly fits the bubble pattern.
The trajectory implies a 45% loss in the asset’s value within 12 months of the peak of a typical financial mania.
Under this model, the price will fall to $34,000–$37,000 by the end of October.
“The pattern also suggests that bubbles usually deflate over the next two years. Accordingly, we think it is not too difficult to envisage Bitcoin falling below $30,000 this year,” the experts said.
They admitted they were wrong with their 2021 forecast, when they predicted the price would fall below $10,000, while the first cryptocurrency reached record highs near $69,000. The Invesco specialists attributed the miss to Bitcoin, it seems, going through a series of bubbles.
Back in December 2021, Louis Navellier, CEO and founder of Navellier & Associates, allowed for a return of the price of digital gold to $10,000, drawing attention to the hype around cryptocurrencies.
In January, DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said Bitcoin was too expensive in light of the coming tightening of monetary policy by the Fed and proposed waiting for the price to drop to $25,000 before buying it.