JPMorgan experts have pinpointed several “critically important” factors that could influence the cryptocurrency market in the coming months, reports The Block.
The report examines technical, geopolitical, and structural aspects, as well as seasonal trends—particularly the Uptober effect. Special attention is given to the reduction of the Fed’s interest rate, Bitcoin-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and the upcoming major Ethereum upgrade known as Pectra.
October Promises a Bullish Trend
Researchers noted that October has been a profitable month for crypto investors 70% of the time.
“While past performance does not guarantee future results, we believe that the popularization of the term ‘Uptober’ may influence [investor] behavior and ensure a successful month for Bitcoin,” the analysts wrote.
Fed Rate Cuts Yet to Impact the Market
According to analysts, the cryptocurrency market has yet to fully experience the positive effects of the key rate reduction in the US. Although monetary easing typically supports risky financial instruments, the correlation between digital assets and this indicator remains moderate—at 0.46.
“We have yet to see a surge in cryptocurrency prices,” the experts emphasized.
JPMorgan also acknowledged that the lack of historical data makes it challenging to predict Bitcoin’s future value.
“Crypto assets only began to develop actively in the early to mid-2010s. For most of this period, rates were close to zero,” the researchers noted.
Bitcoin Options Could Boost Market Liquidity
Another potential catalyst could be the recent approval of trading options on spot Bitcoin ETFs. Analysts expect this to lead to increased liquidity and attract new participants to the market.
“The emergence of options provides investors with more flexible tools for working with ETFs, which will contribute to the growth of the underlying asset’s liquidity,” they noted.
Analysts added that this event could trigger a positive chain reaction, improving market structure and making digital assets more accessible to institutional investors.
Pectra to Have Long-term Impact on Ethereum
The upcoming Ethereum upgrade, named Pectra, was highlighted by analysts as a significant event. It combines the Prague and Electra upgrades and includes over 30 network improvement proposals (EIPs) aimed at enhancing efficiency, optimizing validator operations, and expanding account abstraction capabilities.
“While Pectra is expected to significantly change Ethereum’s functionality, we view this upgrade more as a structural improvement rather than an immediate price growth factor,” the analysts noted.
Overall, experts concluded that the cryptocurrency market is in a “wait-and-see mode”; clearer macroeconomic or structural triggers for sustainable growth are already on the horizon.
Earlier, JPMorgan predicted an increase in demand for gold and Bitcoin.