In the latter half of the year, the leading cryptocurrency is expected to continue its price ascent, outpacing gold, driven by corporate acquisitions and growing support from American states. These conclusions were drawn by JPMorgan, as reported by The Block.
Experts referred to the implementation of the debasement trade strategy, which became relevant for both assets at the end of 2024. Currently, it has transformed into a zero-sum game, where one instrument strengthens its position at the expense of the other.
“From mid-February to mid-April, the precious metal rose at the expense of bitcoin, and in the last three weeks, we have observed the reverse. We expect the zero-sum game to continue until the end of the year. Catalysts related to digital assets will create more advantages for the leading cryptocurrency,” the review states.
Since peaking on April 22, gold has depreciated by nearly 8%, while bitcoin has appreciated by 18% over the same period. According to specialists, this shift is also noticeable in investor flows: in the past three weeks, capital has moved from ETFs on precious metals to spot BTC-ETFs and crypto-ETFs.
Futures data show a similar trend — positions in gold have decreased, while open interest in bitcoin contracts has increased. At the beginning of the year, the picture was reversed.
Experts linked the trend change to drivers characteristic of digital assets. Companies like Strategy and Metaplanet are increasing their purchases of the leading cryptocurrency. Michael Saylor’s corporation plans to raise another $42 billion by 2027 and has already achieved 60% of its initial goal, specialists explained.
JPMorgan also noted initiatives related to digital gold by the American states of New Hampshire and Arizona.
“Expanding [this] list could become a more sustainable positive catalyst,” analysts explained.
As an additional factor, they cited the “maturation” of the derivatives market. JPMorgan highlighted deals such as the purchase of Deribit by Coinbase, Ninjatrader by Kraken, as well as Gemini obtaining a license to offer similar instruments in Europe.
UBS reported a shift of wealthy clients in Asia from dollar assets to gold, cryptocurrencies, and Chinese markets.
Galaxy Digital noted that bitcoin is increasingly being viewed as a digital version of the precious metal, with growing interest from institutions, exchange-traded funds, and even governments.
Researchers at NYDIG stated that the leading cryptocurrency has strengthened as a defensive asset following “Liberation Day” of U.S. President Donald Trump. Similar conclusions were reached by QCP Capital.