JPMorgan analysts expect bitcoin to maintain its dominance over Ethereum and other altcoins in 2025, The Block reported, citing a note.
According to CoinGecko, the measure stands at 54% at the time of writing, with ETH at 11.14%.
The authors identified eight key factors that could support bitcoin’s continued dominance.
ETF inflows
In the analysts’ view, the narrative of the first cryptocurrency as a digital component of the “debasement trade” continues to attract significant inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs from both retail and institutional investors.
By contrast, Ethereum-based instruments have drawn restrained interest — since launch they have attracted $2.6 billion. JPMorgan sees this as evidence of limited demand for future altcoin-based exchange-traded funds.
MicroStrategy
MicroStrategy is “only halfway” to executing its plan to raise $42 billion for bitcoin purchases, the analysts calculated. In their view, the company’s “21/21 plan” gives the first cryptocurrency additional momentum.
Crypto reserves
JPMorgan allowed that a U.S. decision to create a cryptocurrency reserve exclusively in bitcoin would further strengthen the latter’s position. Previously, colleagues at Fidelity Digital Assets forecast that not only the United States would take this path.
L2
As a fourth factor, the analysts cited advances in bitcoin second-layer solutions. In their view, this challenges platforms such as Ethereum.
Blockchain
The fifth factor is the shift of institutional blockchain applications for digital-bond trading and transaction settlement to private or consortium blockchains. JPMorgan believes these offer greater privacy and customisation, reducing the appeal of public blockchains for large institutions.
Infrastructure development
New projects are increasingly focused on infrastructure rather than token issuance. According to the report, this marks a departure from the coin-centric strategies of the 2021–2022 bull market. As an example, the authors point to Base, which has become popular without launching its own token.
Long-term utility
As a final factor, the analysts noted that many DeFi projects succeeded in their early stages, but as the hype faded, user activity and token prices declined.
According to the analysts, examples such as Friend.tech, Farcaster and Lens underscore the need for additional time to demonstrate long-term utility.
At the same time, the authors said that as the market awaits regulatory clarity from the new U.S. administration, crypto remains in a consolidation phase. They did not rule out it dragging on, as authorities are likely to focus on other issues first.
Earlier, at Steno Research predicted bitcoin’s dominance would fall to 45% in 2025.