A decisive breakthrough of Bitcoin above $64,000 would return a significant volume of coins held by short-term investors to profitability, potentially reigniting its growth trajectory. This conclusion was reached by Glassnode.
Analysts have warned of the potential for a strong directional price movement amid historically strong volatility compression.
From the perspective of the MVRV ratio, the overall profitability of investors remains stable—on average, each Bitcoin still yields a twofold profit.
According to experts, this threshold often delineates the phases of “enthusiasm” and “euphoria” in a bull market.
Unrealized profit on coins “in the black” averages $41,300 with a “cost price” of $19,400.
Unrealized loss on “loss-making” Bitcoins is $5,300 with an acquisition cost of $66,100.
Both indicators can help identify potential sell pressure points as investors seek to lock in profits and/or avoid further unrealized losses, experts explained.
The ratio of unrealized profit/loss per Bitcoin is 8.2. Only 18% of trading days have seen a higher relative value, indicative of a “euphoria” bull run mode.
Analysts outlined the market structure, highlighting several phases:
? Deep bear market: quotes are below the realized price.
? Early bull market: the rate is in the range between the realized price and the true market mean.
? Bull market in the enthusiasm stage: quotes have exceeded the true market mean but have not reached a new ATH.
? Bull market in the euphoria stage: the rate has surpassed the ATH of the previous cycle.
Currently, the third mode mentioned above is characteristic. The true market mean is approximately $50,000.
This level remains a key support, maintaining the conditions for the continuation of the bull run if the price stays above it.
In the next chart, experts presented an analysis of the “cost price” of Bitcoins held by speculators (last moved less than 155 days ago). They added one standard deviation (SD) in both directions to forecast likely actions by this category of investors.
? Significant unrealized profit signals a potentially overheated market. This condition is characteristic of the $92,000 level.
? The breakeven point is at $64,000.
? Significant unrealized losses signal a potentially oversold market. This corresponds to the $50,000 level and the aforementioned true market mean as a bull run breakout point.
Experts emphasized that only 7% of trading days saw prices fall below the -1SD range.
Conducting an “age” analysis of coins, experts found that only holders of Bitcoins acquired three to six months ago remain “in the black.” Relatively later purchases have resulted in “paper” losses by now.
Analysis of the URPD metric showed that the current spot price is near the lower boundary of a major supply node between $60,000 and ATH. This corresponds to the cost models of short-term holders.
“Since 2.63 million BTC (13.4% of current issuance) are in the cluster from $60,000 to $70,000, small price fluctuations can significantly impact the profitability of coins and investor portfolios. Overall, this indicates a risk that many market participants may be sensitive to any price drop below $60,000,” experts warned.
In August, Standard Chartered predicted a new ATH for Bitcoin.
Earlier, CryptoQuant stated that the prerequisites for resuming the rally in the third quarter had been completed.