The risk that February’s bitcoin correction will persist remains high. A bearish technical backdrop has coincided with increased activity among large holders.
A 20% slide looms
A “bear pennant” is forming on the daily chart of the leading cryptocurrency.
This pattern appears when, after a sharp decline (the “flagpole”), prices compress into a narrow, contracting range. A break below the lower boundary of such a formation typically leads to a new downswing comparable in scale to the initial move.
A decisive move and close below support could trigger a drop to $56,000 in February (about 20% from current levels). Conversely, a breakout above the trend’s upper boundary and the 20‑day EMA around $72,700 would invalidate the bearish scenario.
‘Whale’ activity
On-chain data reinforce the gloomy outlook. According to CryptoQuant, the seven-day moving average of the inflow ratio from large holders to Binance has hit a record 0.619, up from 0.4 at the start of the month.
The indicator tracks the share of the ten largest transactions in total exchange deposits. According to the analyst known as Darkfost, a rising ratio signals increasing price pressure from large players.
A ‘durable bottom’
Matrixport analysts identified a signal that could serve as a short‑term counterweight to the bear trend.
This week the firm’s fear and greed index indicated that a local bottom may have been reached. The indicator’s 21‑day moving average slipped into negative territory and has begun to turn higher.
📊Today’s #Matrixport Daily Chart — February 17, 2026 ⬇️
Bitcoin Sentiment Hits Extreme Lows ⁰— Durable Bottom Are Emerging?
#Matrixport #Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoMarkets #MarketSentiment #FearAndGreed #RiskManagement #Volatility #CryptoResearch pic.twitter.com/WxJg3xrHSf
— Matrixport Official (@Matrixport_EN) February 17, 2026
Such a shift points to seller exhaustion and pervasive pessimism among investors. Historically, extremely negative sentiment has marked attractive entry points.
“Given the cyclical link between sentiment and price dynamics, the market is likely approaching a turning point,” Matrixport said.
Even so, the analysts do not rule out further short‑term declines.
The popular gauge remains at extremely low readings, indicating “extreme fear”:
Correlation with equities and macro factors
In recent months, bitcoin has shown a tight link with the technology sector. Yet after falling in step with US stocks, the coin did not participate in their subsequent rebound.
Noelle Acheson, author of the Crypto is Macro Now newsletter, called the current backdrop “frankly bleak”. In her view, progress in institutional adoption has yet to be reflected in price, which only deepens investor pessimism.
Another source of pressure is the spot bitcoin ETFs segment. Net outflows from these products have continued for a fifth straight week.
At the time of writing, bitcoin trades around $67,930. Over the past 30 days the asset is down 26.5%, according to CoinGecko.
Earlier, Glassnode experts found significant losses among long‑term investors as bitcoin fell to $60,000.