A break above $109,000 would confirm bitcoin’s ‘bull flag’. Technicals and market outlook

A “bull flag” is forming on bitcoin’s chart, pointing to a potential rise to $140,000 and beyond, said CoinDesk technical analyst CoinDesk Omkar Godbole.

Bitcoin jumped from $75,000 to a record $112,000 in six and a half weeks. Since late May, after setting the high, the asset has traded in a mildly descending range, forming a bull flag.

To confirm the formation, bitcoin must climb above $109,000, opening the way for a rally toward $146,000, the analyst writes.

The pattern is a countertrend consolidation with low volume in a narrow range, preceded by a sharp advance. This phase is typically shallower and shorter than the preceding rally.

According to Charles Kirkpatrick’s book “Technical Analysis: The Complete Course for Financial Market Technicians”, a bull flag forms over a short period — from a few days to several weeks.

“It is important to exercise caution and make sure the formation is complete by waiting for a breakout,” Kirkpatrick warns.

Confirmation can still fail, either because price drops below the trend channel or because buyers lack the strength to break resistance.

Another angle

Analyst and MN Trading founder Michaël van de Poppe noted he had expected a longer consolidation for bitcoin given the recent pullback amid the flare-up in the Middle East.

I assumed we were going to get a slight consolidation before continuation, but it seems that #Bitcoin is even more bullish.

Breakout about to kick in?

Atleast good; #Altcoins are outperforming today. pic.twitter.com/su4cyNEv1S

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) June 26, 2025

“[…] it seems bitcoin is even more bullish. Breakout about to kick in?” he wrote.

The trader known as Titan of Crypto pointed to the still valid inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. It indicates a move to $125,000 is near.

#Bitcoin Targeting $125,000? ?

The Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern remains valid.#BTC held the retest.
Next stop: neckline projection. pic.twitter.com/KPzHUQ2qYA

— Titan of Crypto (@Washigorira) June 26, 2025

Investor and OKX partner Ted Pillows outlined a similar scenario, targeting $125,000–$130,000 by the third quarter.

He cited a chart of global liquidity (M2). In his observation, bitcoin still correlates with the gauge, which continues to rise.

The broader market

Bitcoin retains long-term upside, but in the short run the market may correct, according to experts surveyed by ForkLog. Investors are taking profits near all-time highs, and fresh catalysts are lacking. In this setting bitcoin is likely to oscillate in a tight range or even dip temporarily.

Crypto Summit CEO Alexey Zyuzin believes the most likely scenario for the next month is a slide to $95,000–$100,000, since “there are currently no strong fundamental triggers for a confident continuation of the rally”.

Despite persistently low exchange liquidity and stabilising demand, the conflict between Israel and Iran has shifted investor attention toward traditional assets, he says.

He added that new highs are unlikely before late summer or autumn — depending on when the Fed begins its rate-cutting cycle.

Bitget Research lead analyst Ryan Lee struck a moderately upbeat tone. In his view, bitcoin will trade between $102,000 and $108,000 in the coming weeks. He also pointed to the positive effect of shrinking exchange balances:

“The average inflow of bitcoin [to trading platforms] has fallen to a 10-year low — about 40,000 BTC per day. The total reserve on exchanges is just 2.92 million BTC, the lowest since 2019.”

Lee also noted that even amid the flare-up in the Middle East the leading cryptocurrency held above $100,000. That points to resilient demand for the digital asset from investors, including institutions.

Earlier, the CryptoQuant analyst known as Yonsei_dent warned that bitcoin’s bull phase may soon end.

A contributor to the company, Carmelo Aleman, forecast a bitcoin price peak above $200,000 in 2025.