Futures reports are a tool that helps traders gauge sentiment among large players and supplement the view of the market. For ForkLog, analyst Дмитрий Перепелкин spoke about the mood among Bitcoin bulls.
Bitcoin continues to move within the pattern of the ‘Symmetrical Triangle’. The price is above the exponential moving averages (EMA) with periods 50 and 200, which indicates that the upward trend is still in place.
In the CME’s COT report for July 28 to August 4, in the Asset Managers section, long positions were reduced. This is profit-taking by large players, as the price reached levels where historically there was high trading volume (June 23, 2019 — September 6, 2019).
The price is currently moving within the ‘Symmetrical Triangle’ pattern, indicating consolidation (a period of subdued price changes after a trend). There is currently a struggle between sellers and buyers.
Some institutions are actively building short positions in anticipation of a short-term drop after such a long-awaited and rapid rise from the $9,000 mark.
In the COT report for August 4–11, in the Asset Managers section, the number of long positions decreased by more than twofold (−245). This suggests that institutional investors expect a short-term drop (a correction after breaking the $10,000 level). The number of short positions among Asset Managers stood at 495.
In the Leveraged Funds section, there remains a slight edge in favor of short positions — 7,958 versus 6,161.
On Bitfinex, long positions among retail traders began to shrink. After reaching the $12,000 mark, the number of holders of long positions fell by 15.5%.
Note the rise in the average margin lending rate on Bitfinex. This, along with growing trading volume, points to rising market excitement. It is now possible to finance margin traders at an average daily rate of 0.05% (about 1.5% per month). When demand for margin financing rises in an uptrend, it signals capital inflows into the market.
From the COT reports, one can infer that institutional investors do not rule out a short-term decline. This is evidenced by the reduction of long positions and the rise of short ones. Such dynamics are typical for a consolidation period. Breaking the $12,000 level would open the road to $13,000.
Subscribe to ForkLog news on Telegram: ForkLog Feed — the full feed, ForkLog — the most important news and polls.