Analyst calls time on the era of “mass altseasons”

The next altseason will not lift the whole market; only a few projects will outpace bitcoin’s returns. The reason is saturation and waning correlations between assets, argues CryptoQuant contributor and on-chain analyst Timo Oinonen.

Tron as an Altseason Indicator (via @cryptoquant_com)

[Context]

Tron (TRX) is a blockchain ecosystem that focuses on decentralizing the internet through high-speed, scalable infrastructure. Founded by Justin Sun in 2017, Tron supports smart contracts, dApps, and DeFi solutions.… pic.twitter.com/vuaSO67GQa

— Timo Oinonen (@oinonen_t) July 21, 2025

The analyst flagged a divergence between bitcoin and TRX. Since March the token has outperformed, while its linkage to bitcoin has weakened. Historically such patterns have signalled capital rotation and the start of an altseason.

This cycle looks different. The market is saturated: the number of tokens has exceeded 43 million. That dilutes capital and impedes a broad advance, even if bitcoin dominance begins to slip.

Investors, he argues, will be more selective. Rather than a sweeping market-wide rally, gains will accrue to a handful of “premium” altcoins with strong fundamentals. A “mass altseason” like those of 2017 and 2021 is unlikely, Oinonen stressed.

No signs of an altseason

An analyst using the handle LordOfAlts said the altseason has not begun, contrary to expectations. None of 30 key bull-market indicators has triggered, he said.

Everyone is saying ALTSEASON has started but if you look at indicator they say ~ Not yet.

Out of 30 bull market top indicators, not a single one has triggered.

• Bitcoin dominance is still high at 61%

• Altcoin Season Index is sitting at 51/100 (needs to hit 75+)

• Puell,… pic.twitter.com/NU92VlpWZN

— Henry (@LordOfAlts) July 21, 2025

He cited several factors to support his case:

• bitcoin dominance remains high—around 61%;
• the Altcoin Season Index sits at 51 out of 100, whereas confirmation requires a reading above 75;
• the Puell Multiple, MVRV Z-Score and Mayer Multiple also remain in the “safe zone”, not signalling an overheated market.

Even so, the analyst noted rising interest in Ethereum. He pointed to liquidity rotating into the ecosystem of the second-largest cryptocurrency. Staking and layer-2 activity are also increasing.

LordOfAlts reckons the market is still at a very early stage. He advised building positions ahead of a rally that most will distrust.

At the time of writing, the Altcoin Season Index stood at 48.

Bitcoin’s bull cycle continues

Over the past week, bitcoin’s dominance index fell from 63.76% to 60.78%, according to Glassnode.

#Bitcoin dominance fell from 63.76% to 60.78% over the past week — a 2.98 percentage point drop.
One of the sharpest weekly declines this year, as capital rotated into altcoins. pic.twitter.com/aPpZtZsTQ9

— glassnode (@glassnode) July 22, 2025

The 2.98 percentage-point decline was among the sharpest this year, as capital rotated from the leading cryptocurrency into altcoins.

Even so, a trader known as dman_AG thinks the price of digital gold will keep rising.

Dominance may have dropped, but BTC’s still pumping. 💪🏼 This means new capital is entering the space and will ultimately rotate into BTC.https://t.co/jZToUC45m6

— dmanAG (@dman_AG) July 22, 2025

In his view, this points to fresh capital entering the market that will ultimately rotate back into the main crypto asset.

He also flagged a “bull flag” on the chart, likening current price action to the late-April consolidation. The pattern’s target, by his estimate, is $140,000.

The trader known as Gaah обратил attention to the behaviour of long-term holders of digital gold. According to him, the SOPR indicator hit a 2025 high. The metric pointed to increased profit-taking.

He added that, despite the rise, the reading remains well below levels that have historically marked the market-cycle top. That suggests euphoria and widespread selling have yet to begin.

Historically, SOPR readings above 4 have signalled a macro top. The indicator currently sits around 2.5. The analyst sees this as backing the case for further price gains.

The pattern is consistent with a bull market, but not one nearing its end.

He cautioned investors to track the trend while bearing in mind the risk of sharp pullbacks.

Earlier, technical analyst Peter Brandt said the altcoin season had begun.