The leading cryptocurrency is trading around $87,000, nearly matching the average entry price for spot ETF buyers ($86,600). Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, described this zone as a “psychological threshold.”
+$6B Out, Zero Profit: The Psychological Line for Bitcoin ETF Investors
“This zone acts as a psychological pivot: holding above realized price reinforces conviction & stabilizes flows, while sustained trading below it tends to accelerate redemptions.” – By @MorenoDV_ pic.twitter.com/OZ8A60qPhq
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) January 28, 2026
According to the expert, investors now face a choice: to weather the downturn or break even. Profit-taking is not on the agenda.
The realized price serves as a key indicator. If the rate holds above it, participants’ confidence will remain intact. A drop below this mark will deprive holders of a “profit buffer” and trigger accelerated redemption of shares.
Moreno provided the following data:
- The peak cumulative inflow was recorded on October 10, 2025 ($72.6 billion);
- since then, the net outflow has been approximately $6.1 billion;
- the current figure is $66.5 billion (a decrease of 8.4%).
The analyst views the situation as the first significant stress test for the sector. Despite the capital outflow, the realized price has not declined. The market absorbed the selling pressure from speculators and late investors.
The situation has become a test of resilience. Further holding of the price above the average entry cost will encourage maintaining positions. Falling below this level threatens a shift in strategy: from passive accumulation to active selling.
Earlier in January, Bitwise analysts stated that the fourth quarter of 2025 marked the end of the bear phase.